Jake's DK Top Plays for the The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

The Zurich Classic Recap:

I put out two spend-up pairs last week, Rory/Shane and Rai/Theegala; neither delivered a ceiling outcome by any means, but both pairs were solid and could’ve easily been a part of winning lineups. I would’ve liked at least a Top 10 from Rory/Shane, but they scored decently for the T12 finish. After the two spend-ups, you need some cheaper options; that’s why I went with the other three (Walker/Gerard, Valimaki/Silverman, and Fisk/Widing). Walker/Gerard and Fisk/Widing both delivered in a good way and outscored many golfers at their price point or higher. Sadly, our only missed cut was the Valimaki/Silverman group; looking at strokes gained data, Valimaki played his heart out, but Silverman was all-around awful, which is why they missed the cut.

Byron Nelson Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

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My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG:TOT (Birdie fest courses (easy/very easy scoring average)
• SG: APP (last 50 rounds; easy, very easy, average to gain on app)
• GFG % (driver heavy courses)
• Driving Distance (last 50 rounds)
• SG: Putting
• BoB % (last 50 rounds; easy, very easy, average scoring conditions)

Byron Nelson DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Scottie Scheffler, $13.3K

Scottie is +250 to win this week before even stepping onto the first tee; we haven’t seen odds this short pre-tournament since Tiger Woods. If you’re playing cash, lock Scottie and move on. If you’re playing tournaments, there are ways to get different, and Scottie is not a must; if you’re an MME player, Scottie should take up a significant portion of your portfolio, but not 100%.

Ryo Hisatsune, $8.3k, 70/1 FD, 10th in model

Key Stats:

• 10th in SG:TOT (Last 20 Rounds)
• 15th in Overall 200+ (Last 12 Months Gain APP Average/Easy/Very Easy)
• 21st in Par 3 Avg (Last 12 Months Par Scoring Average/Difficult)
• 20th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Gain APP Easy/Very Easy)

In his last five starts, Ryo has two Top 5 finishes and two Top 20 finishes; the 22-year-old is playing his best golf since joining the tour last year. Ryo profiles somewhat similarly to Valimaki, but has a more all around game, he’s capable of spike tournaments with his irons and putter just like Valimaki. The only thing Ryo lacks is distance but makes up for it with some of the best iron play in the field this week and is one of the best in the field from 200+ yards out.

Sami Valimaki, $7.3K, +100/1 MGM, 42nd in model

Key Stats:

• 12th in SG:TOT (Last 20 Rounds)
• 2nd in SG:APP (Last 30 Rounds
• 5th in Overall 200+ (Last 50 Rounds Gain APP Very Easy, Easy, Average)
• 20th in SG:P (Last 24 Rounds)

Valimaki is playing the best golf of his career these past two months; gaining on the greens in that time span in 6/7 tournaments and gaining on approach in 7/7. At a course like TPC Craig Ranch, golfers need to be able to hit close approach shots and be capable of getting hot with their putter, Valimaki checks all the boxes and is only ranked 42nd in my model because his long-term form isn’t great.

Joseph Bramlett, $6.7K, +300/1 ESPN, 2nd in model

Key Stats:

• 8th in SG:TOT (Last 20 Rounds)
• 6th in GFG % (Last 18 Months Scoring Easy/Very Easy)
• 5th in SG:BS (Last 50 Rounds Scoring Easy/Very Easy)
• 13th in Overall 200+ (Last 12 Months Gain APP Average/Easy/Very Easy)

Bramlett is a solid fit at TPC Craig Ranch, but the 2nd ranking in the model is misleading. To everybody's surprise, Bramlett is not the 2nd best golfer in the field overall, BUT he is a good cheap option this week. TPC Craig Ranch is one of the longest golf courses on tour, and Bramlett can hit the ball a mile. Even better for him is if you spray it OTT. It doesn't matter; these fairways are very wide, and the missed fairway penalty is low this week. Bramlett's two worst parts of his game are Driving Accuracy and Putting. Accuracy is not necessary, and this is also one of the easiest courses on tour to putt at. It's not a surprise that Bramlett has a T7 and T19 finish since 2021.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Sami Valimaki

Byron Nelson Bets:

Ryo Hisatsune > Takumi Kanaya -150 Caesars

72 Hole Matchup

Taylor Moore > Justin Lower -150 BOL/offshore

72 Hole Matchup

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Zurich Classic: 2-5, -$19

Overall: 20-44, +$398.80

9.33% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.