13 Undervalued Fantasy Football Sleepers on NFL.com
Comparing the difference between a player's 4for4’s ranking and his NFL.com ADP allows us to unearth the most undervalued fantasy sleepers on the site.
Thirteen of our top NFL.com sleepers for 2017 are discussed below, followed by two tables that list the fantasy value for every player 4for4 has ranked in the top 200 in PPR and standard. The tables are sorted by Sleeper Score, which is simply ADP minus 4for4 ranking; the higher the Sleeper Score, the more undervalued a player is.
Note: This article will be frequently updated.
RB Mike Gillislee - Patriots
Among our top-20 RBs, Gillislee presents the second best value on NFL.com by far. He’s being drafted around the 7-8 turn. That's a round higher than his July ADP, but still great value. An argument can be made he could be taken in the third or fourth round based on New England’s offense and recent production that has come from the role Gillislee is anticipated to take over. According to Football Outsiders, Gillislee was No. 1 in DVOA and Success Rate among RBs with a minimum of 100 rushes.
RB Doug Martin - Buccaneers
Going at the end of the eighth round, Martin is worth the risk on NFL.com among our top-30 RBs. If he returns from his three-game suspension as the starter, we are projecting top-12 RB production on a per game basis. If he’s going to be your RB4, why take a shot on him at this price?
RB Jonathan Stewart - Panthers
Drafters are ignoring/not believing the Panthers when they say Stewart is still going to be the early-down back and get his touches despite the team selecting Christian McCaffrey with a top-10 pick in the NFL Draft. We have Stewart as a flex option, and his NFL.com ADP in the 10th round has a good chance to return value given what the touch share has looked like during Ron Rivera’s time as head coach in Carolina.
RB Ameer Abdullah - Lions
After extensive film study, Rushing Expectation author Joe Holka is a big believer in Abdullah’s talent. While questions remain about whether he can stay healthy and not get his early-down touch share vultured by Zach Zenner, he’s being drafted too late at his eighth-round ADP.
RB Darren Sproles - Eagles
Being drafted in the 11th round, Sproles is the best top-30 RB value in PPR scoring formats in NFL.com leagues. He’s in an offense where the early-down back last season, Ryan Mathews, saw less than 40 percent of the backfield touch share. This may be Sproles's final year in the league, but we’ve seen other productive players go out with a useful fantasy season in recent years.
WR Mike Wallace - Ravens
After the Ravens signed Jeremy Maclin, Wallace’s ADP on NFL.com has fallen to a point where he is the best value among our top 40 WRs. His 13th-round price is five rounds later than it should be.
WR Willie Snead - Saints
As with ESPN, Snead is my favorite WR sleeper on NFL.com due to him playing in an incredible offense helmed by Drew Brees with Brandin Cooks now gone. Snead is still being drafted late in the ninth round/early 10th. He’s already been a borderline top-30 WR before and could get an extra 20 targets this season. A top-20 finish is well within Snead’s range of outcomes. He’s being drafted three rounds later than he should be.
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