FantasyDraft Week 2 Value Plays
Each week, I’ll be offering my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack, or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two flex positions.
Josh Allen ($11,100) @ Giants
Few quarterbacks offer the rushing floor of Josh Allen who has gained at least 30 yards on the ground in every game but one since Week 12 of last year—in other words, Allen usually spots your team a passing touchdown in fantasy points. His propensity for the deep ball is where his ceiling comes from, even if the Bills tend toward a run-heavy approach. Buffalo faces a Giants defense that was torched by Dak Prescott last week, giving up a 405/4/0 line to the Dallas signal-caller.
It’s been a long time since you had the ability to drop a Sunday Night hammer in a main event but FantasyDraft includes all Sunday games on their main slate. After a lackluster Week 1, Atalanta is in a get-right spot against an Eagles defense that surrendered 380 yards and 3 touchdowns to Case Keenum last week. Given their performance in Week 1, Atlanta’s offense should draw relatively low ownership across the board and Ryan will be one of my highest-owned quarterbacks in the Hooters Million.
Josh Jacobs ($9,200) vs. Chiefs
After touching the ball 24 times on Monday night, Jacobs is the most egregiously-priced player on the slate with a salary lower than 25 other running backs. As 8-point underdogs, there are some concerns about game script since he only saw one target last week but that risk is more than baked into his price. The Raiders weren’t in a situation where they needed to throw so there’s not even a guarantee that the rookie would cede much passing-down work to Jalen Richard. If Oakland manages to keep the game even relatively close, Jacobs is the skeleton key of the week.
Alvin Kamara ($15,400) @ Rams
Kamara isn’t cheap by any means but when you consider he comes in priced $1,600 cheaper than Saquon Barkley with an equal floor and ceiling, you can see how he’s a bargain. The Saints gave Kamara 71% of the backfield touches in Week 1, so it seems they’re moving him to more of a workhorse role than we saw when Mark Ingram was still in town. With an over/under of 54 and a spread of just three, Kamara is in a smash spot against a Rams defense that allowed over 200 total yards and two scores to Christian McCaffrey last week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($13,400) vs. Seahawks
The Patriots have historically been great at taking away an opponent's primary receiver so JuJu’s slow start shouldn’t be a huge concern. He faces a Seahawks defense this week that allowed over 400 yards through the air in Week 1, including 273 yards and two touchdowns to players who were lined up in the slot, where Smith-Schuster saw six of his eight targets last week.
Sammy Watkins ($14,000) @ Raiders
With so much value on the Raiders side of the ball and the explosiveness of the Chiefs offense, this is the most stackable game of the week and Watkins has the highest ceiling on either side. With Tyreek Hill out for much of Week 1, Watkins was targeted 11 times, seeing almost a third of Kansas City’s targets. The Raiders allowed the highest touchdown rate through the air last season and will likely be without two starters in their secondary this week.
Darren Waller ($6,400) vs. Chiefs
I omitted Tyrell Williams as a top wide receiver value so as to not have a Raiders-only column but this entire offense is severely under-priced after playing the late game on Monday night. Their season debut saw Waller represent 31% of Oakland’s targets, which was third among tight ends and 14th across all positions. Still, the Raiders tight end is priced 13th at his position against a defense that came into 2019 ranked last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Mark Andrews ($8,200) vs. Cardinals
Andrews matched Waller in both targets and target share last week but is priced up as the TE5. Still, the Ravens tight end is relatively affordable compared to the top options and Arizona’s makeshift secondary let rookie T.J. Hockenson run rampant for 131 yards and a score last week. Andrews is similar to Hockenson in that he is a field-stretching tight end who provides splash plays that most other players at his position aren’t capable of.
New England is by far the most expensive defense of the week but there is enough value across the board to pay up for the position if you so desire. The Pats are favored by 19 points against arguably the worst offensive line in the league. Over the last two seasons, Ryan Fitzpatrick has posted a 4.6% interception rate in losses. Since the merger, the 16 teams that were underdogs by at least 18 points have averaged just 14.5 points scored.
With so many teams favored by a big number, the Dallas defense should draw moderate ownership despite being a great dollar value. The Cowboys are a 4.5-point favorite and Washington allowed the second-highest adjusted sack rate to open the season. The Redskins also threw at the 10th-highest rate in neutral game script and, at this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that number go up just because of Jay Gruden’s spite for Adrian Peterson.