Quarterback By Waiver Wire (QBBWW): Week 11

Nov 12, 2013

I apologize for including Jake Locker in this space last week.

It is the fate of so many Quarterback By Waiver Wire (QBBWW) options to finish their Sunday on the sidelines, writhing in pain, leaving untold fantasy production on the field. It’s happened to poor Brian Hoyer, Matt Schaub, to Jay Cutler and Terrelle Pryor, to Christian Ponder and now Locker, who’s finished for the season with a foot fracture.

The two guys who survived my QBBWW kiss of death in Week 10, Nick Foles and Joe Flacco, had very different outings. Everything Foles lobbed down the middle of the field was reeled in by DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper, the poster boy for statistical regression. Flacco had at least three close calls on deep balls against a banged-up Bengals’ secondary, with one deep shot slipping off Torrey Smith’s fingertips.

Sadly, we get no points for almost.

Foles finished as QB5 and Flacco was QB19 thanks to a few turnovers. I still like Flacco as a volume thrower, as Baltimore’s running game has reached historical levels of ineptitude.

Spotting quarterbacks who have little or no running game on which to lean is a key component of identifying viable QBBWW candidates, as we’ll see below.

My QBBWW plays, through 10 weeks, are averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game, or QB10 numbers. Optimal QBBWW plays are netting 20.5 points, or QB3 numbers.

Case Keenum (HOU) vs. Oakland Raiders

The gunslinging Keenum is averaging 38 drop backs in his three starts for Houston, helping to cancel out his abysmal 60 percent completion rate (thanks in part to a glut of desperation throws last week in Arizona).

The Texans’ offensive line is eligible for federal disaster aid. The left side of the line has imploded during the past month, leaving no room for runners Ben Tate and Dennis Johnson. Tate and Johnson, in fact, totaled 22 yards before contact against the Cardinals. There’s nowhere to run in Houston.

4for4’s Sortable Team Matchup Stats pegs Houston for 261 passing yards and 1.8 passing scores against the crumbling Oakland secondary, which now gives up 18.2 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to signal callers. Only 10 teams are worse.

There’s no reason to think the Texans will suddenly lean on their nonexistent run game for the rest of 2013. That makes Keenum a QBBWW candidate with a surprisingly high fantasy floor.