Jake's Week 17 NFL Player Prop Bets
Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
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Week 16: 3-3, +$14
Overall: 63-50, +$619
4.63% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
Week 16 Recap
The positive streak continues, with us going up a tenth of a unit in Week 16 (haha). Green is green! Brissett over 35.5 pass attempts was a brutal loss, as ATL dominated time of possession, virtually playing keep away. Even with ATL playing like that, Brissett had the ball at the end of the game and could've easily gone over, but threw an interception with under a minute left. Another brutal beat was Franklin under 3.5 receptions, while his role remained stronger than I had expected, with Bryant returning, he caught his fourth ball with under 4 minutes left down two scores.
Unlike those two losers, Mayfield under 32.5 pass attempts went exactly as I had thought. TB posted their lowest PROE on the season versus the run-funnel Panthers. Despite losing the game, Mayfield only attempted 26 passes. The last bet I'll highlight from Week 16 was Michael Wilson under 5.5 receptions. Wilson was only targeted 3 times and posted a measly 0.11 TPRR with Marv back in the fold. Despite the crazy success Wilson had with Marv injured, it's clear the Cardinals aren't stressing to force-feed the ball to Wilson with Marv back.
Week 17 Bets
Justin Herbert UNDER 31.5 Pass Attempts (-101)
When the Chargers had their stud LT Joe Alt, they were one of the league's most pass-happy offenses. Since Alt's injury and their bye week, it's almost a complete reversal: since their Week 12 bye, the Chargers rank 23rd in PROE, a massive swing from 3rd in PROE in Weeks 1-11. Herbert hasn't attempted 30+ passes in five straight games, and I expect them to continue with their negative PROE game plan against a stout Houston D that just got gashed on the ground by Ashton Jeanty.
Michael Mayer OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
was shut down for the remainder of the season, and that paves the way for a TE1 role for former 2nd-round pick Michael Mayer. Mayer played two games this season with Bowers out of the lineup; In the first game, he was targeted 7 times and posted a receiving line of 5/50/1. The second game was when the Raiders managed to run only 30 offensive plays in four quarters, so that is basically a wash (he only had 1 catch). The Giants have gotten gashed through the air and ground all season, they're one of the league's worst defenses, and with Mayer now in a more featured role, 28.5 is too low.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 32.5 Pass Attempts (-101)
Tlaw is playing the best football of his career and now faces one of the NFL's biggest pass funnels: the Colts. Indy's D is allowing the second-lowest yards per carry (3.8) and is conceding the third-most pass attempts per game (37.2). Tlaw attempted 30 passes versus the Colts a couple of weeks ago, but that was because Daniel Jones went down early, and the Colts just rolled over and got smoked. With Rivers at QB, the Colts are more than competitive, and I expect them to push Tlaw and the Jags' pass game.
Quinn Ewers OVER 29.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
In Ewers' first start, the Dolphins logged their second-lowest PROE of the season, yet Ewers STILL threw 30 times. Tampa has allowed the 3rd-highest PROE on the year, and it would be no surprise in a pointless game if McDaniel took the training wheels off for Ewers even a little bit. Also, with all the WRs back and healthy for Tampa, this is a get-right spot against a weak MIA secondary that is open for business when it comes to allowing big plays, which could speed up the game and give Ewers more time with the ball in his hands, similar to last week's game against Cinci.
Matthew Stafford OVER 21.5 Pass Completions (-110)
The Rams do not control their own destiny in the division, but this game is a must-win nonetheless. The Rams are 4th in PROE this season, and Stafford has cleared this number in 6 of the last 8 games. Obviously, if you asked Stafford what he cares about, he'd say winning a Super Bowl, but being this close to his first MVP award in his decorated career, I would not be surprised if the Rams piled it on in the end through the air if they have a comfortable lead. I have released an over on Stafford three times this season, and we're 3-0 on those three releases, so here's to keeping the trend going.
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