Chalkboard Week 11 Player Prop Bets Article

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Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space below to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 10 Recap

Another near break-even week in Week 10, and there are a couple of bets I'd want back. For starters, Vidal's 61.5 rushing yards closed at 46.5, but unfortunately for us, one week removed from Patterson nearly splitting the carries with Vidal, Vidal had a whopping 25(!!!) carries to Patterson's one. Hindsight is 20/20, and I guess I shouldn't have bought into one week of usage, but so did the rest of the world as his line closed 15 yards lower, but the cards flipped, and it was not a good bet at all. The other bet I'd want back is Dyami Brown o2.5 recs; The Jags went out and traded for Jakobi, but they were without Travis Hunter and BTJ. Dyami was off the injury report, but shockingly only ran 13 routes on 32 Tlaw drop-backs. I am not sure why a guy (Dyami) the Jags paid 10 million in the offseason is now a part-time player with their WR1 and 2 injured, but this was a bad bet given the usage. We also had some bets that I thought were super strong and should've won. One of those was Loveland u3.5 recs and u32.5 rec yds. The books were pricing Loveland as if Kmet was going to miss this game, and or pricing it as if Loveland's role would expand into a more full-time role; neither was true. Kmet played and Loveland ran 23 routes to KKmet's20. Unfortunately for us, Caleb dropped back the most he had since Week 1 despite coming into the game as home favorites versus a horrific run defense. Loveland is a bet I'd make time and time again. Another loss that stung was Hendo o21.5 rec yds. Henderson again ran a healthy number of routes, 26 on 36 Maye drop-backs. As stated at the time of release, TB has been beaten through the air by opposing backs, but for whatever reason, Henderson just didn't see the targets. Henderson had a 0.20 TPRR coming into the game but only posted a 0.03 TPRR this past Sunday. Here's to hoping we can string together some winning weeks in a row and put these up-and-down, up-and-down results of the past behind us.

Week 11 Bets

Jauan Jennings OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

Jauan is fresh off a 71-yard performance and now faces the Cardinals, who should be down CB Will Johnson and possibly Max Melton as well. The Cardinals' offense is 1st in PROE over the last month and is a sneaky shootout candidate every week. Ricky Pearsall is returning, but with Jennings finally looking like himself again and fully healthy (which I noted last week when I released this), he's back to his WR1 ways. This game has the second-highest total (48.5) of all the games on Sunday, and I am expecting a lot of plays and points scored.

Michael Penix Jr UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts

It takes two to tango, and the Panthers have not done much tango'ing this season as they're 31st in PROE on the season and their games have produced the 29th most points (39.9). This game has a 41.5-point total, and I don't expect the Falcons' offense to be forced into dropping back Penix in this spot. Carolina has a league-average run defense, and Penix has struggled recently. It would be in the Falcons' best interest to lean heavily on Bijan and Allgeier, and that's exactly what they did last week versus the Colts, running Bijan and Allgeier a combined 28 times, and Penix only threw the ball 28 times.

Davis Mills UNDER 32.5 Pass Attempts

Since Week 2, not a single QB to face this Titans defense has attempted more than 31 pass attempts. Mills and the Texans' offense trailed for almost the entire game last week against Jacksonville, and he threw a whopping 45 times. I am expecting a much different game script against a miserable Titans team. When the Texans and Titans squared off against each other earlier this season, the Texans won 26-0, and Houston possessed the ball for almost 40 minutes, and Stroud still only threw 28 times. It's unlikely the Titans have any offensive success whatsoever. The Titans' defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 71% of their pass attempts (31st in the NFL), and it's also very likely Mills doesn't drop back more than 35 times.

Cade Otton OVER 3.5 Receptions

Otton has eclipsed this number in 5 straight games; earning 37 targets over that span. In all of those games, the Bucs have been without their top 2 WRs coming into the season, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (Evans did play against DET but left the game due to injury). Evans is possibly done for the year, and Godwin will be out again this week. There are some weather concerns in this game; some sustained winds and a chance of rain/snowfall during the game, but I don't see this affecting Otton (5.3 aDot on the season), and Baker should continue to rely on him as his security blanket.

Isaiah Bond UNDER 19.5 Receiving Yards
Bond only ran 14 and 20 routes before the bye, and Tillman is back in the fold as well. Bond cleared this number once with Tillman active, and that was with Flacco at QB, not Gabriel. The weather in Cleveland is also expected to be pretty crappy, making it even harder on Gabriel's noodle arm.

Tyrone Tracy U43.5 Rushing Yards

Tracy played well last week, but it took until having a 10-point lead in the second half to get going. He still only out-carried Singletary 14-8, a week after being out-carried 8-6 by Singletary. The usage here is wildly fluid in a situation that isn't optimal for running, considering the Giants are touchdown underdogs and playing against a pretty solid run defense. The Packers are allowing just 3.85 yards per carry on the season to opposing running backs.

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