Jake's Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
Football is finally back, and so are the props. Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
Week 1 always brings a bit of uncertainty with new coaching staffs, personnel changes, and untested depth charts, but that also means opportunity. There is nothing better than betting into uncertain situations and reading them better than the market. So far in Week 1, I have released four official bets to our subscriber discord. Last NFL season, my official releases won at a 60% clip, and I am extremely confident we will continue to find success in 2025.
On every official release, I will track TO WIN 1 unit. For record keeping, my official record and ROI will assume betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop.
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Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
Cedric Tillman over 34.5 (-114 at FD, 31.5 B365 and 30.5 MGM, WA otherwise at 34.5)
First play of the year is an OVER. Let's go. Tillman became a bigger part of the offense in Week 7, playing over 80% of the snaps in 4 games prior to injury. In those games, he went 8/81, 7/99, 6/75, and 3/47. Njoku and Jeudy played in ALL of those games. There are rumblings that the Browns are enamored with Tillman's upside, and he should play a big role on the team.
He now gets to play with Joe Flacco at QB, who provides almost certainly better QB play than what Tillman dealt with last year. They also draw the Bengals in Week 1 as underdogs. The Bengals' defense was 30th in success rate and 27th in EPA last year. They have added virtually no one outside of a defensive coordinator change, and their starters were rinsed by the Commanders in Week 2 of preseason.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Risk 0.2 units on 60+ on FD at +290
Risk 0.1 units on 70+ on FD at +430"**
Will Dissly UNDER 24.5 receiving yards (FD Builder, fine to 20.5 WA, also receptions U2.5 are solid as well)
In Week 2 of the preseason, the Chargers played their starters for the first drive, and this was the only game where both Dissly and Conklin were active. Nathan Jahnke from PFF wrote, "Conklin played four of five plays out of 11 personnel, while Dissly took one. Dissly played on first-and-10, while Conklin was in for traditional passing situations.". Based on the small sample size we have from the preseason, signs point to a split between Dissly and Conklin, slightly favoring Conklin on clear passing downs. At the beginning of last season, the Chargers deployed a similar approach with Hurst leading the way as the clear pass catcher and Dissly rotating in, so I anticipate a similar approach out of Greg Roman.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Justin Fields UNDER 27.5 Pass Attempts (-104 DK, -111 BOL, and -114, FD)
Fields started six games last season, and in four of his six starts, he went under 27.5 pass attempts. The Jets project to be one of the slowest-paced offenses in the NFL with new play caller Tanner Engstrand, who had the Lions offense at 28th in neutral pace last season. It's also expected that a Justin Fields run offense with one WR with a pulse will rely heavily on the run game, which should also drive the total plays down and drain the clock. On the other side of the field, the Steelers, as usual, project to have one of the league's better defenses as well. It is also no secret that Aaron Rodgers plays at a criminally slow pace. The Arod-led Jets last season ranked 30th in neutral pace, and Arthur Smith's offense ranked dead last in PROE last season. This Steelers vs Jets Week 1 matchup rightfully has the lowest total on the entire slate by 4 points and should be the lowest-play-volume game of the entire week.
Risk to win 1 unit
Joe Flacco OVER 21.5 Pass Completions (-118 Builder, -120 DK/FD)
is now 40 years old, but there have been no signs of his gun-slinging abilities slowing down. Flacco won't win any big games anymore, but he still stuffs the stat sheets. Flacco cleared this number in five of seven games last year, the two he stayed under against were when he faced a team ranked in the top 8 for defensive DVOA (MIN and PIT). This game should have a lot of plays, yards, and points (47.5 point total) as both teams are lacking on the defensive side of the ball, as both were in the bottom 8 in points allowed last season. Cincinnati's secondary is one of the weakest in the NFL, and I expect the Browns' offense to take advantage of it on Sunday.
Risk to win 1 unit
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