DST Strength of Schedules Beneficiaries & Pairings

There is nothing quite like the feeling of getting an outlier defensive performance and knowing you can rest easy knowing you’ve won the week. The beauty of it is that you don’t need to draft a defense early to do it. When picking a defense, we’re going to look at their early schedule as we can’t count on one DST for an entire season without paying up for them. We’re looking to avoid elite quarterbacks and offenses. We also want to target bad offensive lines and quarterbacks. In a sense, the talent of the defense itself matters less than that of the opponents on the other side. It’s something to keep in mind when drafting.

I’ll be using 4for4’s Hot Spot Strength of Schedule Tool to find DSTs that have an advantageous start to the season, and some to keep in mind for later in the season. The Hot Spot tool uses Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) from 2024 to rank the caliber of the opponent for each team every week. However, we have to remember that a lot of situations have changed since the 2024 season (we’ll miss you in the streaming defense streets, Will Levis) and adjust accordingly.

I’ll try to avoid targeting the top four defenses by ADP because, unless your league has an unspoken agreement to wait until the final round, someone inevitably always overdrafts the top defenses. With that in mind, we’ll look for a few defenses to target based on their matchups and see if we can find a few that can match or exceed the scores from those elite defenses.

Early-Season Targets

You may notice two teams that showed up multiple times - New Orleans and Seattle - and they will be two of the teams we will want to target throughout the season. New Orleans has a first-time head coach, one of the worst quarterback rooms of recent memory, and a line I’m not afraid to target. The Seahawks didn’t get a massive downgrade at quarterback, but I’d rather have Geno Smith behind this offensive line than Sam Darnold. We’re also going to look to target the Indianapolis Colts as well.

Arizona gets to start off with the best defensive start of the season as they’ll get New Orleans, Carolina, a potentially difficult matchup against San Francisco, and then Seattle. The San Francisco game will likely be easier now than later in the season with no Brandon Aiyuk and a still recovering Jauan Jennings. For a defense you could potentially stream, Arizona makes a lot of sense to target at the beginning of the year.

Minnesota is one of the defenses that is being drafted somewhat early, but doesn’t have an outlier ADP. I would rather see Chicago early in the season before the Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams partnership is fully clicking. I think the Atlanta offense will be better this year, but will they be as good in Week 2 as they will be later in the season? Probably not with an already banged-up offensive line.. Cincinnati is tough, but the offensive line is prone to giving up sacks.

The 49ers also get a favorable start to the year, facing two of the teams we are initially looking to target in Seattle and New Orleans. Arizona and Jacksonville are neutral, at best, matchups, but this could be a situation with the favorable first two weeks, where you start with the 49ers and move on before Week 3.

Early-Season Avoids

Baltimore (DEF2) and Philadelphia (DEF3) are both being drafted as top defenses this season, and both have extremely difficult starts for their defenses. Baltimore at least has Cleveland, but a brutal start outside of that. Things really don’t get any easier for Baltimore until after their bye week. The Ravens seem like an easy avoid in drafts.

Philadelphia looks like they have an easy start with Dallas, but a reminder that the 8.4 aFPA was largely without Dak Prescott and without George Pickens. Things don’t get any easier as they head on the road to Arrowhead for a matchup against the Chiefs, home against the Rams, and at the Bucs. Combine that with the fact that the Eagles defense won’t have as much talent on it this year, and that’s enough to stay away, especially early in the season.

Playoff Targets

After the first four weeks, we’ll have a much better idea of who the better defenses are, and more importantly, which offenses to attack. There will be backup quarterbacks, offensive line woes, and so much more to keep an eye on throughout the season. Trying to predict who will be the best defenses to target in the playoffs is difficult. Still, if we go by the same principle of avoiding elite quarterbacks and looking for matchups to exploit, this is where the edge will be later in the season. Pairing defenses outside of smaller leagues isn’t really an option; the bench spot would be of much better use for an extra running back or wide receiver.

San Francisco is popping up again as a team to target in the playoffs, and while we’re not crazy about the talent on the 49ers' defense, the return of Robert Saleh could work some wonders against a weak schedule. Tennessee won’t be as bad as last year and is still a target for now, but Indianapolis could be worse, no matter who is under center.

Carolina and the Jets both get to target New Orleans in the playoff stretch, and that’s a big plus for me. I think Carolina’s closing stretch is easier, but the talent on the Jets is better. The Panthers will have a tougher game against the Bucs, especially if they are fully healthy later in the season. The matchup against Seattle could also prove great for fantasy as well.

Targeting New Orleans is going to be a key to my defensive strategy all season, whether it be season-long or DFS, so the Jets getting New Orleans in the playoffs is enough to highlight them with two neutral matchups surrounding them in the playoffs. I know New England is showing up as a plus-matchup, but I think we have to expect some improvement from Drake Maye and the offense this year.

The Bottom Line

• When drafting a D/ST to start the season, we need to worry more about the opponents early in the season than the ADP and the talent on their defense.

• Targeting teams with weaker quarterbacks and offensive lines will lead to more fantasy points than how early you drafted your defense.

• San Francisco pops up in both the early-season targets and playoff targets.

• Philadelphia and Baltimore are the two easy avoids from the top defenses early in the season.

• Circumstances will inevitably change, but teams like New Orleans, Indianapolis, Seattle, and Cleveland will be targets for streaming every week.