Alvin Kamara’s Fantasy Football Value in a Shaky Saints Offense

There are, once again, a lot of moving parts in New Orleans, but the skill position players have been shockingly consistent year-over-year. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are back to headline the wide receiver room, Juwan Johnson was brought back to operate as the TE1, and the running back depth chart is quite barren once we get past a certain veteran.

The only major change for the Saints came at quarterback, where rookie Tyler Shough will enter camp in a battle with Spencer Rattler to take over for the retired Derek Carr. Let’s have a look at what all this means for veteran Alvin Kamara’s 2025 fantasy outlook.

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Alvin Kamara’s Recent Career

I’m sure we’ve all got a pretty good idea of who Alvin Kamara is at this point, but let’s touch on the last few seasons of his career regardless. While the efficiency on the ground has waned over the last half decade, his usage in the passing game is as strong as ever. Maybe it had a little bit to do with Carr’s propensity to check the ball down when he’s in trouble, but his 87 targets and 500+ receiving yards were both his highest since the 2020 season.

Heading into the 2024 season, we had expected a bit of a dip in usage after we saw the veteran’s snap rate “drop” to 62.5%, a number that still saw him finish eighth among qualifying running backs but still served as a reduction in playing time. Whether that had anything to do with him missing time due to a suspension was a moot point, as his snap rate jumped back up to 71.0% last season, ranking behind only Bijan Robinson, De’Von Achane, and Kyren Williams.

What’s more, Kamara’s target share surged to a league-leading 19.6%. That will be difficult, or borderline impossible, to replicate if we get an entire season(s) out of Olave and Shaheed, but things are still thin behind them. With a new offensive coordinator and a new rookie joining the backfield, things could look slightly different in the Big Easy for 2025.

The Saints' Offense in 2025

Expectations were muted for the Saints heading into last season, and despite a fantastic beginning to the year, things dissolved quickly. Dennis Allen lost his job after a 2-7 start, while interim coach Darren Rizzi (3-5) didn’t do a whole lot better. Injuries to your starting quarterback and two top receiving options will do that, but after scoring 91 points through the first two games, it took them eight more to accumulate that many again. Through those next 15 games, they failed to score more than 14 points on eight occasions, including a 34-0 shutout in Week 16.

It was enough to force the team to make a complete coaching overhaul, bringing in former Cowboys/Chargers/Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore as head coach, supplemented by new OC Doug Nussmeier, who operated as Moore’s quarterbacks coach at each of those prior stops.

Pulling running back usage from Moore’s previous three-plus seasons would be a fun exercise, but considering the vast differences in running back talent and quarterback style, I’m not so sure that would tell us a lot about how he will look to deploy his current options. What we can take away from his previous stops is his propensity to push the pace of play.

It could be argued that this 2025 iteration of the Saints —a team currently projected for 5.5 wins— should be slowing the pace of the game rather than opening up more variance, but tell that to the 2023 Chargers, who went 5-12 and finished with the second-highest no-huddle rate and the second-fastest second-per-snap.

Will he keep this up with a rookie quarterback? It’s hard to say, as each quarterback he’s worked with over his six-year coordinating career had some time under their belt, but one thing we can say with more confidence is that he is likely to have Tyler Shough (or Spencer Rattler) funnel the ball to his playmakers. That has held through each of Moore’s stops, and with a questionable depth chart, it would behoove everyone involved to focus on Olave, Shaheed, and, of course, Kamara.

Projecting the Saints' Backfield in Fantasy

The offseason was pretty quiet in regards to the New Orleans Saints running back room, as the team opted to focus on the offensive line (LT Kelvin Banks) and a Carr replacement (QB Tyler Shough) with their first two NFL Draft selections before loading up on defensive depth with their mid-round picks. This leaves Kendre Miller, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers, and Velus Jones all fighting against the roster bubble, while Kamara and sixth-rounder Devin Neal are likely the only pre-camp locks.

Neal set a plethora of school records during his four years at Kansas, but may lack some of the explosiveness that would force the coaching staff’s hand in forcing him the ball in Year 1. We’d expect him to play third-fiddle behind whichever veteran wins the backup role here, with the favorite currently being Kendre Miller. The former third-rounder is truly in a make-or-break situation after missing 20 of a possible 34 games through two seasons, while accruing only 454 total scrimmage yards.

Miller profiles as a perfectly fine late-round stash as it stands, but even that should be under scrutiny throughout training camp and the preseason.

As for Kamara, his days of uber-efficient carries are probably behind him, but there are paths for him to push up against another RB1 finish. The offensive line still has question marks heading into the season, but with one second-round and four first-round picks up front, we could see a massive improvement if they answer those questions. There’s also the possibility that he earns 80-90+ targets if he plays a full season, and according to our Hot Spots tool, he’s also got an incredibly favorable defensive schedule.

Even if you think the Saints roll out a miserable offense in 2025, it’s hard to envision Kamara falling out of RB2 range, unless the team is so far away from .500 that they shut down all their veterans. On the flipside, we could all be sitting here in December wondering why we avoided the RB10 when his ADP was in the fifth round.

The Bottom Line

• Alvin Kamara’s backfield competition is as light as it's ever been, despite some offseason shuffling.
• There is a wide range of outcomes for the Saints' offense in 2025, and some of those scenarios could be difficult to watch. However, a veteran pass-catching back has a better chance of avoiding fantasy duds than if Kamara were a touchdown-dependent grinder.
• According to current Underdog ADP, Kamara is in the back-end RB2 range, going as the RB19 at the 4th/5th turn. It would come as a surprise if he wasn’t the No. 3 pass-catcher on a team projected to win 5.5 games, which should be enough to pad a valuable season with that kind of ADP.