Week 5 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
Week 4 Recap: We stacked ANOTHER positive week, going 10-6 for +3.30 units. We had great success in the island games, capped off by Matt Breida going under his total of 48 rushing yards and Zach Charbonnet narrowly going over his total of 24.5 rushing yards. To be fair on Charbonnet, Geno threw a swing pass behind him to Charbs for 9 yards, but they counted it as a pass. So he probably should have been closer to 40 yards than 30. We had some tilting losses, including DeAndre Hopkins finishing with just 4 receptions while running fewer routes than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore. He clearly isn’t near 100% for the Titans to be trotting out those jabronis over him. Both Justice Hill and Gus Edwards returned this week, except Justice played just 9 snaps despite starting over Gus when the two had played together previously in Week 2. That led to Gus Bus-ting our under of 38.5 yards which honestly looks ridiculous in hindsight, considering how much work he got and the game script. Anyway, with another successful week in the books, I am now up 7.14 units on plays that I originated on the season and feel great about the Week 5 board.
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Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets
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Desmond Ridder under 184.5 passing yards (-110 at Bet365)
Ridder has had a rocky start to the season, and there are already calls for him to be benched for Heinicke. That likely doesn't happen here, but he does have a sneaky tough matchup against the Houston Texans. The Texans are a massive run funnel, ranking 7th in pass DVOA and 28th in run DVOA. They have similar splits in EPA. They also rank 10th in explosive pass rate allowed, averaging just 6.53 yards per attempt allowed. Just one QB has cleared 175 yards against the Texans so far, and that was Trevor Lawrence and the Jags, who allowed a ton of quick touchdowns and faced a massive negative game script.
The Falcons will be able to stay on schedule here with the running game, and when they do pass, it won't be easy. Play to 180. This is also available at FanDuel, Draftkings, Caesars at a similar price.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Gus Edwards over 45.5 rushing yards (-115 DK/MGM/CZRS)
The Steelers have been rinsed on the ground so far this season and still are without their best run-defender in Cam Heyward. They are allowing 4.84 yards per carry to opposing running backs, are 28th in EPA, and 27th in success rate. They have already allowed 5 running backs to clear 60 rushing yards in 4 weeks.
Edwards played 40 snaps (69%) last week and had 17-of-25 (68%) backfield touches. In a spot with 12+ carries likely, this is a great look. Play to 48.5.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
TJ Hockenson over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Playable at 55.5 widely available.
Hockenson has 9, 8, 11, and 3 targets with the latter outing coming in a game where the Vikings had a lead and insanely low play volume. Essentially, an outlier. Hockenson now draws a great matchup against the Chiefs who are allowing 8.5 yards per target to opposing tight ends so far. That includes 58 yards to Tyler Conklin and 57 yards to Evan Engram. Hockenson's usage is obviously significantly better than either.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Miles Sanders U40.5 rushing yards (-110 MGM, -120 DK, -113 Rivers)
Sanders played a season-low 43% of snaps and was vastly outplayed by Chuba Hubbard. Sanders is now averaging 2.9 yards per carry on the season and is 40th in yards after contact. Now he draws Detroit as 11-point underdogs and one of the best-run defenses this year that ranks 2nd in success rate and have been elite so far.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
D'Andre Swift O 64.5 rushing yards (-110 MGM, -115 DK, -119 CZRS)
Swift has 14, 16, and 28 carries the last three weeks and now gets a good draw against the Rams' defense that has purposely schemed to defend the pass and stop big plays. The Rams lead the league in light box rate at 74%. Against light boxes this season, the Eagles running game has averaged 4.72 yards per carry, have been stuffed a the lowest rate in the league, and are averaging 2.21 yards BEFORE contact per attempt which is top-3 in the league. Swift could go absolutely wild here and at the minimum should push into the 70s with 15+ carries.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
James Cook U54.5 rushing yards (-114 FD)
Playable at 51.5 elsewhere, play to 50.
There are a couple of potential outs here. Cook has slowly been losing more work to Latavius Murray each week who has been playing well. Cook will obviously remain the lead back but seeing Murray play outside of the redzone or short yardage was noteworthy. On top o this, the Jags run defense has played well, allowing 3.86 yards per carry to opposing running backs and are 4th in EPA/Play, and 3rd in success rate allowed.
This is largely because they play the highest rates of stacked boxes in the league. I anticipate Josh Allen and the Bills skewing pass-heavy here and checking out of called runs if the box is stacked as Allen has had a lot of success throwing against stacked boxes.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Juju Smith-Schuster under 27.5 receiving yards (-115 at DK, MGM, Builder)
Juju ran a route on just 38% of dropbacks and now we are getting a game that figures to be a slugfest. It has a brutally low total of 40.5, Mac Jones was benched last week and Derek Carr was playing through an injury. Both teams are likely to rely heavily on the running games here. The Saints have also been pretty strong at defending the pass so far (albeit against weak competition). Mac and this passing game definitely fall into that category as well.
Juju has just 19 total receiving yards the past two weeks and seems to be a rotational player at this point.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit to win 1 unit
Courtland Sutton under 46.5 receiving yards (-112 at Fanduel)
Sutton is 2-2 to this number this season and now he plays the Jets who have the best duo of outside cornerbacks in the league. Sutton plays nearly 80% of his snaps on the outside and will have by far the toughest matchup of the entire Broncos receiving corps. On top of this, the Broncos have been pushed in basically every game this season outside of Week 1 (32 yards on 4 receptions in a soft matchup). I understand that everyone is ready to forgive Zach Wilson for his sins of atrocious quarterbacking after just one good game but i'm certainly not. The Broncos defense is playing terribly but the reality is the Jets are going to run the ball, a lot. This likely won't be the massive shootout like we have seen in weeks past. As we remember with our previous Sutton under, he only beat us against the Commanders with them playing prevent the last minute of the game.
There are a lot of outs for this under with the matchup and game potentially being a dud. Play to 43.
Risk 1.12 units to win 1 unit
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