Super Bowl Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Feb 09, 2024
Super Bowl Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

There is sadly only one game left of the season but it figures to be a good one. The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers as small underdogs, sporting a total of around 47. My full FREE in-depth breakdown will be ready to go shortly where I break down every aspect of the game and give my prediction.

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Super Bowl 58 Player Prop Bets

There are tons of ways to attack the big game, but I think a combination of sides, totals, and player prop bets is the best.

Combined total rushing yards over 229.5 at FD, 230.5 -120 at DK, 235.5 -115 at CZRS

Find this on FD by clicking NFL - > scroll to "rushing props". Find it on DK by clicking "rushing props" and then "rushing specials."

There are multiple different angles here but the obvious one is the matchup on both sides. I expect both teams to have a ton of success running the ball here. The 49ers will likely skew run-heavy as long as possible here considering how good the Chiefs' pass defense has been and how bad their run defense has been. The 49ers running game is #1 in basically every metric while the Chiefs run defense is 23rd in rushing success rate allowed, 28th in EPA, and 27th in DVOA. The 49ers offense ranks 2nd in DVOA adjusted line yards while the Chiefs defense ranks 25th. On top of this, the 49ers largely use zone blocking which is a staple of the Shanahan scheme. The Chiefs allowed 4.62 yards per carry to zone scheme runs and a 51.9% success rate, both 29th in the league. They have the second lowest stuff rate as well. There is a common counterargument that claims "The Chiefs will just stack the box and force Purdy to throw." The Niners have run into stacked boxes at a top-2 rate in the league (over 40%) and still are the best rushing team in the league. Part of this is because they have been so good at running with a full back which has come on over half their carries. Against 21 or 22 personnel (multiple running backs) the Chiefs are allowing 5.2 yards per carry which is 27th. On top of this for the Niners, you have Brock Purdy scrambling more than ever and a healthy Deebo Samuel has been frequently used as a rusher in the playoffs.

On the other side, the Niners' run defense has been gashed each of the last two weeks allowing 293 yards in the playoffs and on the season are 30th in rushing success rate and 27th in EPA. They have been especially weak to outside runs where they are allowing nearly 7 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Chiefs are already good at outside running with Pacheco rushing for over 5.5 yards per carry in those situations. Patrick Mahomes averages 26 rushing yards in the playoffs and the Chiefs in each of their past Super Bowls have used a non-RB for at least one carry.

Beyond the matchup, I looked at how both teams have done this year in the relevant samples. The Niners have played 16 games with Trent Williams and CMC fully healthy and the Chiefs have played 18 games with Pacheco fully healthy. That makes for 289 total combinations of games. Those two teams combined for over 230 yards in 73% of them. A counterargument could be that they were both winning a lot which aided the running at the end of the game, but it doesn't factor in any of the matchup edges that are arguably better for both sides here than in a large majority of those games. Our projections have the game over 245 rushing yards total and that's with a light projection on Deebo and Purdy rushing yards.

Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit

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