Super Bowl Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
There is sadly only one game left of the season but it figures to be a good one. The Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers as small underdogs, sporting a total of around 47. My full FREE in-depth breakdown will be ready to go shortly where I break down every aspect of the game and give my prediction.
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Super Bowl 58 Player Prop Bets
There are tons of ways to attack the big game, but I think a combination of sides, totals, and player prop bets is the best.
Combined total rushing yards over 229.5 at FD, 230.5 -120 at DK, 235.5 -115 at CZRS
Find this on FD by clicking NFL - > scroll to "rushing props". Find it on DK by clicking "rushing props" and then "rushing specials."
There are multiple different angles here but the obvious one is the matchup on both sides. I expect both teams to have a ton of success running the ball here. The 49ers will likely skew run-heavy as long as possible here considering how good the Chiefs' pass defense has been and how bad their run defense has been. The 49ers running game is #1 in basically every metric while the Chiefs run defense is 23rd in rushing success rate allowed, 28th in EPA, and 27th in DVOA. The 49ers offense ranks 2nd in DVOA adjusted line yards while the Chiefs defense ranks 25th. On top of this, the 49ers largely use zone blocking which is a staple of the Shanahan scheme. The Chiefs allowed 4.62 yards per carry to zone scheme runs and a 51.9% success rate, both 29th in the league. They have the second lowest stuff rate as well. There is a common counterargument that claims "The Chiefs will just stack the box and force Purdy to throw." The Niners have run into stacked boxes at a top-2 rate in the league (over 40%) and still are the best rushing team in the league. Part of this is because they have been so good at running with a full back which has come on over half their carries. Against 21 or 22 personnel (multiple running backs) the Chiefs are allowing 5.2 yards per carry which is 27th. On top of this for the Niners, you have Brock Purdy scrambling more than ever and a healthy Deebo Samuel has been frequently used as a rusher in the playoffs.
On the other side, the Niners' run defense has been gashed each of the last two weeks allowing 293 yards in the playoffs and on the season are 30th in rushing success rate and 27th in EPA. They have been especially weak to outside runs where they are allowing nearly 7 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Chiefs are already good at outside running with Pacheco rushing for over 5.5 yards per carry in those situations. Patrick Mahomes averages 26 rushing yards in the playoffs and the Chiefs in each of their past Super Bowls have used a non-RB for at least one carry.
Beyond the matchup, I looked at how both teams have done this year in the relevant samples. The Niners have played 16 games with Trent Williams and CMC fully healthy and the Chiefs have played 18 games with Pacheco fully healthy. That makes for 289 total combinations of games. Those two teams combined for over 230 yards in 73% of them. A counterargument could be that they were both winning a lot which aided the running at the end of the game, but it doesn't factor in any of the matchup edges that are arguably better for both sides here than in a large majority of those games. Our projections have the game over 245 rushing yards total and that's with a light projection on Deebo and Purdy rushing yards.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
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Patrick Mahomes higher completion rate than Purdy (-120 FD, -117 BetRivers)
Find this by clicking on Super Bowl and then scrolling right to "passing props" and scroll down to other QB props. You won't find this if you click into the game.
Purdy has a higher completion rate on the season than Mahomes but there are multiple reasons to believe Mahomes is more consistent on a per-play basis in this one. In Mahomes' last two games he has a 76 and 73% completion rate and now faces a much weaker 49ers defense. As I mentioned previously, the Niners largely play zone and rush four. Mahomes has completed over 70% of his passes against those looks this year. The Niners are allowing a 65% completion rate on the whole. On the other side, the Chiefs defense plays more man and has been largely incredible this season allowing just a 60% completion rate. Against the two other top-5 defenses he played this year Purdy completed 44 and 56% of his passes. He completed just 64.5 and 59% of his passes in the playoffs against two far worse pass defenses as well. I'm pretty confident in Mahomes being above average on a per-play basis while there are major questions about Purdy.
Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit
Deebo Samuel over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 Bet365)
This is widely available at other books. Samuel, Aiyuk, and George Kittle have played 11 games together where they all played 60%+ of the snaps or were not a decoy.
In those games, Samuel led the team in target share at 22.2%. The Chiefs' pass defense has been awesome this year but has some exploitable tendencies. They have been allowed 15 total wideouts to clear 55 yards this season but in particular have been really good against #1 wideouts and have struggled against fringe WR1's/secondary options.
Clear No. 1 WRs vs the Chiefs:
- Stefon Diggs (3-21, 4-24)
- Justin Jefferson (3-28)
- DJ Moore (3-41)
- Jamarr Chase (3-41)
- Tyreek Hill (8-62, 5-62)
- Davante Adams (5-73)
- Amon Ra St Brown (6-71)
Fringe WR1s or secondary options vs the Chiefs:
- Josh Palmer (5-133)
- Zay Flowers (5-115)
- Christian Kirk (11-110)
- Devonta Smith (6-99)
- Josh Reynolds (4-80)
- Jakobi Meyers (6-79)
- Jordan Addison (6-64)
I think we will see L'Jarius Sneed on Brandon Aiyuk for most of the game as Aiyuk ran 75% of his routes on the outside and Sneed has a high shadow rate. Regardless, both Deebo and Aiyuk move around a lot. I'm not fully ready to pencil in Aiyuk as the clear #1 and Deebo as the secondary option but I do think they certainly mirror those lists of players closely.
On top of this, the Chiefs are among the league leaders in two-high safety looks defensively. In the same span with all three Niners wideouts, against two-high looks Deebo has absolutely dominated targets with a 27.2% target share and 2.35 yards per route run. The sample is also reasonably big with all three players running over 100 routes.
I'm not sure that we see a ton of consistent success from Purdy and the passing game but when they do I think Deebo will be very heavily involved.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit on over 56.5 receiving yards at FD
Risk 0.1 units on over 77.5 alt rec yards at DK (+205)
Risk 0.1 units on over 99.5 alt rec yards at DK (+500)
Jauan Jennings UNDER 1.5 receptions (-120 at Bet365)
Jennings has played in 15 games this season, catching 1-or-fewer passes in 8 of them. Yet a lot of context is missing from the games he went over:
- Week 7 vs MIN (Deebo didn't play)
- Week 13 vs PHI
- Week 6 vs CLE (Deebo left the game very early)
- Week 2 vs LAR (Aiyuk injured mid-game)
- Week 15 vs ARI (Second reception came in garbage time from Sam Darnold)
- Week 3 vs NYG (Aiyuk didn't play)
- WC Round vs GB (Deebo didn't play)
He only went over 1.5 receptions in two games all season with both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk healthy, and it took garbage time to get there in one of them. On top of this, I expect the Niners to run the ball successfully here and potentially limit passing volume if they can help it. He may not even see more than 1 target, let alone 2+ receptions. This was released at -110 at DraftKings, but I would play it to -140.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit
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Brock Purdy UNDER 94.5 Passer Rating (-115 at Caesars, 97.5 -112 at Kambi)
You can find this under "Passing" and then scroll down. Purdy is a smidge over 50/50 to this number on the season and 0/2 in the playoffs so far. He also has played against two other top-5 pass defenses so far, sporting a 42.6 passer rating against Baltimore and 55.3 against Cleveland. The Chiefs have averaged just 82.1 passer rating against and have allowed just 4 quarterbacks of the 20 they have faced to post a 95 passer rating or higher this season.
Passer rating uses yards per attempt, completion rate, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt, wrapping it all into one number. If he throws even one pick, reaching a 95 passer rating is extremely difficult. If he isn't efficient and doesn't have a high completion rate, that's another major ding in passer rating. Raw yards matter to an extent as well.
What's nice about this bet is Purdy can have a good game and still go under this number if he has to throw more than usual, isn't completing passes as high as we are accustomed to, or throws a single interception. Lots of outs here. I would play this to 90.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Travis Kelce 1st reception for Chiefs at +250 at Caesars
You can find this by going to the game, click on receiving, scroll down to first Kansas City Chiefs player with a reception. I went back and watched all three playoff games and Mahomes' first read on all three first plays were to Travis Kelce. Against the Ravens and Bills they put him in motion behind the line. In the Dolphins game they did a play action fake and targeted him over the middle, mahomes eyes did not move to anyone else. He caught the first pass against the Ravens, was targeted against the Dolphins, and was the first read against the Bills. At +250 there is a bit of value here, play to 2/1.
Risk 0.4 units to win 1.0 units
Ray-Ray Mcloud under 15.5 Punt Return Yards (-105 at DK)
You can find this at D/ST Props - > Kick/Return Props. Just playing it for half a unit since it is DK only but they are allowing reasonable limits on it for it being a random prop. We are getting really, really into the weeds here but that's where you find value in the Super Bowl.
Mcloud hasn't returned a single punt in the playoffs so far. This could be the Niners telling him not to just to ensure their offense gets every possession they can. This leaves us with an out that he doesn't even return a single punt. He stopped returning as many punts around mid-season, returning 15 punts in the first 6 games and just 9 in the final 9 games of the season. In the last 9 games he only eclipsed 15 punt return yards in two of them. The Chiefs' punt return coverage has also been pretty strong this season, allowing 12.2 yards per game.
You can also play Richie James > Mccloud or Chiefs longest punt return as well.
Risk 0.525 units to win 0.5 units
Chiefs longest FG -105 at DK
To find this, go to D/ST props, then click FG-Props.
Harrison Butker is having the best year of his career, drilling 94% of his field goals including hitting 100% of his kicks from 40 yards and on. He is 8-of-8 from 40-49 yards and 6-of-6 from 50+ yards. On the other side, Jake Moody has been, fine but struggled a bit in the playoffs.
On the season Moody is hitting 84% of his kicks but has struggled especially from distance. He is just 5-of-9 on 40-49 yard kicks this year including two misses in the playoffs alone.
This is only -105 because it is listed as a 3-way market whereas Caesars and FD have this around -130 because they have it listed as a 2-way market where if no FG happens it voids.
Risk 0.53 units to win 0.5 units
Niners first team to miss a FG -130 at FD and CZRS
This voids if neither team misses and as I mentioned above, Butker has been automatic while Moody has been a bit shaky this season ...especially in the postseason.
You can find this at FD under "Kicking/Punting" or on CZRS under "kicking props"
Risk 0.65 units to win 0.5 units
Super Bowl 58 MVP Bets
I'm risking half a unit total on a couple of players to win MVP! Make sure to shop around, prices can vary.
Christian McCaffrey +475 at Caesars/DK
As I laid out in my Super Bowl preview, I expect the Niners to run the ball early and often with success against the Chiefs. The Chiefs' secondary is also top-5 in almost every pass defense metric so Purdy not having his best game is very much possible. If the Niners win and CMC has 125+ all-purpose yards and or 2 TDs he is very live, especially if Purdy falters at all.
Risk 0.25 units to win 1.18 units
Deebo Samuel 25/1 at Caesars
I normally don't bet on pass-catchers to win SB MVP because quarterbacks almost always get the nod even if a wideout had an awesome day. With that being said, Deebo can run and catch. I already took his over on receiving yards. If he hits his ceiling in that department and scores a long rushing touchdown he would also be very live to win.
Risk 0.1 units to win 2.5
Isaiah Pacheco 35/1 at FanDuel
I completely understand that Mahomes has not played well in multiple Super Bowls and still won MVP. Yet there is a path here, that someone else could win. I mentioned it in the article but 71% of Mahomes' interceptions came on about half of his dropbacks against zone defenses with four pass rushers. He had the second most interceptions in the league (10) against that setup and the Niners will play like that essentially all the time. I don't think it's outrageous for Mahomes to throw an interception here or be a bit more volatile than normal. A low-scoring win over the 49ers where Pacheco scores 2 touchdowns puts him squarely in play to win.
Risk 0.1 units to win 3.5
Nick Bolton 600/1 at FanDuel
Let's be real, this is kind of a hail mary. But it's 600/1 and most books are lining it at half that or less. If we walk down the same path I laid out above where Mahomes doesn't play his best, it leaves the door open for others including defenders. It would require a pick-6 or fumble-6 plus a super low-scoring game.
Risk 0.05 units to win 30
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