Week 15 NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props

We are BACK for our Week 15 boost and free article breaking down a few of our favorite NFL plays for this weekend! It’s been a couple of weeks since we hit one, so Vivid is boosting our play from 5.5x to 7x!

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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.

If you like my plays below, Vivid is offering a FREE boost! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it! This week's is 7x using these three plays!

Week 15 Vivid Picks Plays

This week, we are going with one over, one under, and a tackle prop over courtesy of my co-worker Ryan Noonan!

Desmond Ridder under 185.5 passing yards

Since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers' pass defense has been playing well. They are allowing just 162 passing yards per game, and only one QB has cleared 190 passing yards in 7 weeks. That includes games against CJ Stroud (140 passing yards) and Dak Prescott (189 passing yards)! It's not just because they are getting their teeth kicked in and opposing teams don't need to throw anymore; their pass defense is 12th in success rate, 3rd in explosive pass rate, and 12th in EPA per dropback.

Now we factor in that the Falcons love to run the ball and are coming off a game where they opened up a bit and got burned against the Bucs. I expect an extremely run-centric gameplan here against Carolina. The last time they played in Week 1, it was tied 10-10 entering the 4th quarter, and Ridder finished with just 115 passing yards on 21 pass attempts. With the Panthers remaining extremely run-heavy on their own end and incapable of sustaining consistent offense, this figures to be neutral or positive game script for Atlanta for the entire game. Even if the Falcons do fall behind, I expect them to lean on the run to maintain offense, as we have seen in years past.

There is now also expected to be a ton of rain and 15+ MPH winds. I think you could stack a bunch of unders in this game.

Deforest Buckner over 4.5 total tackles

From Ryan Noonan: Teams skew run-heavy against the Colts, with only the Jets having a lower PROE and more raw rushing attempts (418 vs 411) against them on the season. It's also no surprise that the new Steelers play-calling tandem is leaning heavily on the ground game with Mitch Trubisky under center. Over the past month, the Steelers are 31st PROE, failing to top 50% in MVP-Mitch's two starts (35% and 47%).

On the season, 17.5% of the tackles against Pittsburgh have come from the interior defensive line, which is the second-highest rate in the league and 3% above average. Now they face Buckner, one of only 3 interior DL with more than 60 tackles on the season, who's had at least 6 TAs in four straight games (8, 6, 6, and 8).

With Buckner playing in the middle of it all, assists help, and the Colts' scorekeeper has been one of the best for years now and is handing out assists at the 7th highest rate in the league. I have Buckner for 5.33, and would play this to 4.5 -120.

Dk Metcalf over 63.5 receiving yards

I get why many of you may be skeptical about playing this after DK’s meltdown last week. But he draws an awesome matchup in what will be negative game script, with Geno Smith back at quarterback. This number is simply too low for a player that should see a ton of volume against a secondary that has been routinely roasted by outside wideouts.

If you like my plays, Vivid is offering a FREE boost! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it! This week's is 7x using these three plays!