Week 14 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 11, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Packers at Giants

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for the second of two Week 14 Monday Night Football matchups, a clash between the Giants and Packers. The Giants, struggling at 4-8, sit third in the NFC East and are biding their time before a long offseason of tough decisions. Meanwhile, the Packers, with a record of 6-6, cling to the seventh seed in the NFC North and are in must-win mode for the rest of the season. Let’s dig into key strategies and plays for those tackling this one-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Packers (-6.5, 21.75) @ Giants (+6.5, 15.25); Over/Under 37

The Giants play slightly faster than average, but they pass significantly less frequently than the average team in neutral game scripts, ranking 28th in overall pass plays per game. Even their pace of play is stuck in the mud at 17th in the league, which we would expect to be much higher given their dismal average score differential of -7.6. Their lack of deep and red zone pass attempts, both bottom-five in the NFL, has led to an average of just 2.0 offensive touchdowns per game over their last thre. This is offense struggling to find its rhythm, if it’s capable of having a rhythm at all.

The Packers maintain a league-average tempo but lean slightly more towards the pass in neutral scripts, especially as the offense has opened up over the last three weeks, coinciding with Jordan Love’s strong play. They rank exceptionally highly in deep pass attempts, now top three in the NFL at 4.8 per game, and are similarly aggressive in the red zone with 5.9 pass attempts per game inside the 20. Their 20th ranking in overall pass plays per game despite a slightly worse-than-average score differential of -2.0 is a bit surprising, but those numbers could shift if Love continues to shine. Their 3.0 offensive touchdowns per game over the past six weeks is the sixth-best in the NFL.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Tommy DeVito has shown flashes of potential for the Giants but has largely struggled with consistency. In his recent outing against the Patriots, he threw for a respectable 7.6 yards per attempt with one touchdown, but his other efficiency metrics indicate a player who is still struggling to read defenses at the NFL level. DeVito ranks outside the top 35 in completion percentage vs. expectation and is similarly low-ranked in EPA per game. He’s outside the top 40 in true drive success rate. He simply can’t convert drives into scores consistently right now. On top of that, the volume is low.

His recent games have seen him throw just 27, 26, and 25 times, meaning DeVito has fairly predictable (low) volume unless the game script forces him to change things up. He averages just 3.5 attempts per game, 18th among quarterbacks, and his 13.8 rush yards per game is outside the top 25. DeVito’s touchdowns-per-target rate is a decent 6.7%, but the lack of passing volume and rushing upside severely limits the impact on fantasy scores. DeVito averages just 10 expected fantasy points per game this season.

Meanwhile, Jordan Love is playing arguably the best football of his young career. Over his last three games, he's thrown eight touchdowns without an interception. Since Week 9, he averaged over 7.0 yards per attempt in each contest, after failing to do so in Weeks 2–8. Love sits around league average in completion percentage against expectations and true drive success rate, but he’s climbed the rankings significantly in EPA per game, another indicator he’s found his groove as a passer. Love has middle-of-the-road rushing ability, averaging 3.3 rushes per game for 19.3 yards, 17th among quarterbacks. He’s scored twice on the ground this season, complementing his 22 touchdown passes. Love's touchdown rate of 5.5% this season is respectable, and only improving as the season goes along.