Week 14 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
It’s official. Week 13 of 2023 was my worst week of gambling history in the 4for4 era. I launched the betting subscription with Ryan Noonan 3 years ago. At this point, we are talking about over 70 weeks of documented action, and last week was my worst. What’s crazy is that it wasn’t just bad reads; there were a few plays that should have easily won and somehow lost. Nothing is more frustrating than nailing the handicap and then seeing your play lose on an outlier play.
We bet Bijan Robinson over 79.5 rushing and receiving yards. He had 79 with 6 minutes left. All he really needed was one more carry, and with the Falcons winning, I figured there was no chance he would be completely iced out. Cordarrelle Patterson saw a carry, Tyler Allgeier saw two, and they brought Bijan back onto the field only to run a play action where Ridder slid down. Arthur Smith saw our bet, teased us by making sure Bijan got to 79, and then proceeded to give us a middle finger. Basically, every other pass-catcher on the 49ers had a long reception except for Brandon Aiyuk last week, falling short of our over on his receiving yards.
Tyler Higbee’s loss was brutal. We played under 26.5 receiving yards, and the whole play was based on his lack of targets, with both Kupp and Nacua on the field and the matchup being very tough. He had zero targets until Puka Nacua got hurt. He caught two passes for 35 yards on that one drive and then did not catch a single pass the rest of the game when Nacua came back in. Ouch.
I was pretty frustrated about how Sunday went but decided to get back on the horse for Monday because I saw value. D’Ernest Johnson had seen 7 carries in two consecutive games, had a great matchup against the worst run D in the league, and his prop was lined at 16.5. Hammer time, right? The Jags decided running the ball was not a good idea and when they did, D’Ernest was hit at the LOS or backfield routinely. He finished with 4 yards on 5 carries. Impossibly bad run out against what has been an outrageously bad run defense.
To top it all off, we played Joe Mixon under 49.5 rushing yards. There were whispers that Chase Brown would see more work, the Jags run defense has been stellar, and the Bengals were 10-point underdogs. Tons of outs for an under to hit. Mixon saw his lowest carry share of the season yet still found a way to bust the under, ripping off an 18-yard run on a draw play as the clock winded down. It was a fitting end to my worst week of betting since I started officially tracking everything in four years. What’s crazy is that despite running colder than cold, we are STILL up on the season. All we can do is reset, trust the process, and get ready to crush Week 14.
Week 14 NFL Player Prop Bets
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Zay Flowers under 45.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet365)
This is widely available at DK, Caesars, FD, etc. Conditions for this game are expected to be outrageously bad, with rain throughout and 20+ MPH winds with even higher gusts. This will impact both sides passing games and both teams' path to least resistance is running the ball anyways. On top of this, Flowers is only drawing a target on 17% of his routes against zone and 33% against man coverage. The Rams run zone over 80% of the time. Between the game state and matchup, I like this one a good bit.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Rachaad White under 58.5 rushing yards (-114 at Fanduel)
White has been on a heater and that's why we are getting an inflated line. The last time these teams met, White had 13 carries for just 34 yards. The Bucs skewed pass-heavy, and I expect more of the same here with AJ Terrell sidelined. The current iteration of Atlanta's pass defense is horrible, while their run defense has allowed just 3.71 yards per carry and is 2nd in run D EPA per play this season. In what is expected to be a successful running game for ATL, both sides should have diminished volume here.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
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