Week 11 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 20, 2023
Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Eagles at Chiefs

Welcome to the Showdown Breakdown for Week 11 Monday Night Football. This week’s primetime matchup features a high-stakes clash between the Eagles and Chiefs, with the two leading their respective conferences, setting the stage for as good of a Super Bowl rematch as we could have hoped for. With both teams relatively healthy, and both defenses stepping up in big ways of late, this game promises to showcase some of the best individual and team talent the NFL has to offer. Let's dive into the DFS strategy to help players navigate this exciting single-game slate.

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Game Environment

This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.

Eagles (+2.5, 21.5) @ Chiefs (-2.5, 24); Over/Under 45.5

The Eagles, leading the NFC with an 8-1 record, present a unique challenge for the Chiefs. Philadelphia's game plan revolves around Jalen Hurts' dual-threat capabilities, which remain a significant factor in their success this season, even with a leg injury hampering Hurts of late. The Eagles don't rely on an uptempo pace, ranking slightly below average in plays per 60 minutes in neutral game scripts, and 28th in overall pace of play. However, their commitment to Hurts' skillset has paid off, with the team averaging the most offensive touchdowns per game in the NFL over the past three weeks. Hurts ranks seventh in deep ball attempts this season while in the red zone, the team leans more on the run. But Hurts’ versatility remains the primary driver of that strategy, as he’s leading the league in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks and has already added seven rushing touchdowns. This multifaceted offense, combined with Hurts’ efficient passing, makes the Eagles a formidable opponent.

The Chiefs, led by two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, are known for their aggressive playstyle, even in close games. They rank above average in pace and well above average in passing in neutral game scripts. Despite being 27th in overall pace of play, the Chiefs' average score differential of +5.4, fourth-best in the NFL, explains most of that metric. When the game is in question, they remain as aggressive as ever. They rank in the top five in pass plays per game, deep passes per game, and top three in red zone passes per game. The Chiefs have struggled more than usual to find the end zone this season, ranking 14th in offensive touchdowns per game and 17th over the last three weeks.

Quarterback Analysis

While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE) represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.

For the Eagles, Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in completion percentage vs expectation and in true drive success rate. He’s all the way down at second rank in EPA per game. He’s 10th in adjusted yards per pass attempt and has top-three rankings in QBR, true completion percentage, and fantasy points per dropback. This has culminated in him leading the league in both expected fantasy points per game and actual fantasy points per game at his position. Despite a recent dip in rushing output due to a leg injury, Hurts has scored in the top five quarterbacks in fantasy points in each of the last five weeks. The Chiefs’ pass defense, third in pass defense DVOA, presents a significant challenge, emphasizing Hurts' need for a huge game if the Eagles hope to pull off the upset.

Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, though not at his statistical peak in 2023, still demonstrates notable performance metrics across the gamut. He ranks top 10 in both true drive success rate and EPA per game. He’s sixth in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns. In short, he’s fine. However, a reduction in his rushing attempts to an average of 4.7 per game and no rushing touchdowns this season has undoubtedly affected his fantasy output.

He currently sits eighth in expected fantasy points per game and fifth in actual fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, which is by no means bad, just lower than we’re accustomed to. His efficiency, again, remains strong with top-10 rankings in adjusted yards per attempt and true completion percentage, and he stands third in catchable pass percentage. However, his completion percentage vs expectation is impacted by a high receiver drop rate, with his skill players averaging 1.9 drops per game, second most in the NFL. While Mahomes remains a viable fantasy option week in and week out, the current season shows a lower probability of ceiling performances compared to previous years. The Eagles rank ninth in pass defensive DVOA.

Core Plays and Auxiliary Options

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