Scott Smith’s UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann Best Bets
UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann is a blessing compared to last week’s card. The main event should be a good one between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann. Both fighters bring the action and look to finish. The remainder of the card has started to have some cracks as two fights have fallen off the card before getting to weigh-ins and another is rumored to be changed to a catch-weight bout. Let’s take a look at the targets for this week.
UFC Fight Night: Krylov vs. Spann Best Bets
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Joe Solecki/Nurullo Aliev Parlay (-117, DraftKings)
Joe Solecki vs. Carl Deaton Fight Breakdown
Carl Deaton is a wrestler out of American Top Team who is stepping up on short notice. Deaton doesn’t have the profile that would suggest he can come through in this spot. He lost a split decision in a step up in competition in PFL, but his record is littered with wins over low-level fighters. The problem for Deaton in this matchup is that he has a skillset very similar to Joe Solecki, but Solecki does those same things better and is coming into this fight with a full camp under his belt. Fighters making their debut on short notice are 2-3 on the year but this isn’t a spot that should see Deaton have success. My model only gives him a 21.6% chance of winning.
Joe Solecki is a slick wrestler who pressures his opponents with grappling. Solecki has solid striking but can often be outclassed by fighters more technical on the feet. Solecki was knocked down in his last fight but showed the ability to weather the storm and come from behind to win. His grit and toughness as a wrestler are his primary paths to victory. Solecki averages 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and racks up control time at a rate of 55%. He should have no problems doing the same in this fight and has a solid shot at finishing this fight via submission.
Nurullo Aliev vs. Rafael Alves Fight Breakdown
Rafael Alves is a dangerous fighter always looking for the finish. He packs solid power in his hands and is willing to exchange and brawl. On the ground, Alves has powerful submissions and rarely tries to force the action to the ground. He almost never fights with a nuanced game plan. Alves likes to brawl in his search for a finish, often putting him in a do-or-die scenario. He has a tendency to run out of gas if he is unable to put his opponents away. Defensively, Alves has a negative striking differential and only defends takedowns at a 50% clip. This fight will be similar to all of Alves’ fights. He will actively be looking to finish but fade if the early pressure is resisted.
Nurullo Aliev is often compared to Khabib Nurmagomedov. While this is a credible stylistic comparison, the two are levels apart skill-wise. Aliev is a pressure wrestler with a ton of experience prior to starting his MMA career. Aliev uses his wrestling to wear on his opponents until they eventually break down. He has solid striking but is by no means explosive. Aliev uses his striking well to close the gap before shooting his takedowns. When the fight hits the ground, Aliev looks to control the action positionally before working on the ground and pound. Aliev doesn’t have any submissions on his resume and often outworks his opponents en route to a decision. This fight will likely go that route as long as Aliev can avoid one of Alves’ big shots.
Risk: 2 units on DraftKings to win 1.7 units. (Playable down to -125)
Underdog of the Week
Jordan Leavitt to Win (-105, DraftKings)
Victor Martinez is 5-0 in his last five fights. He is making his UFC debut after earning a contract via a unanimous decision win on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS). Martinez is an active striker who does his best work with his hands. Martinez has above-average hand speed and power. He looks to do most of his work on the feet with striking exchanges but gets lazy with his kicks, which can lead to being taken down. Martinez needs to show improvement in defending takedowns. When the fight does hit the ground, Martinez shows a solid ability to scramble back to the feet. He is not looking to work on the ground for finishes and his primary goal on the ground is to get the fight back to the feet. Martinez does show a major flaw as he turns and gives up access to his back in scrambles. If he does that against Leavitt he will be in trouble. Martinez will have the better striking in this matchup but will have to clean up the opening he gives in the grappling game if he is to have success in his debut.
Jordan Leavitt is a quirky fighter who twerks in the cage. While his antics may be strange, Levitt is a solid, albeit, limited fighter who controls positions well en route to looking for submissions. The knock on Leavitt is his atrocious takedown ability sitting at 28%. His poor wrestling usually leads to Leavitt eating a few shots to get in close to his opponents. Leavitt’s striking is average at best. He lands single shots from his southpaw stance as he tries to close the distance. Leavitt will have the experience factor on his side in this matchup and has tougher opponents on his resume. Leavitt should be able to force mistakes from Martinez and ultimately catch him in a scramble. Leavitt by submission is the prediction in this fight.
Risk: 1.05 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit (playable down to -125)
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