The Key to Winning Season-Long Player Props

With sportsbooks releasing hundreds of season-long player props, I dug into the last two years of props and their results. I tweeted out a thread last season that included a sample of 238 props from 2021 which showed blindly betting the under blindly was extremely profitable. This year I have over 600 total props from the past two years to provide an even bigger sample size.

Even with strong results, I’m not saying you should blindly bet every under, but that when betting into the season-long prop market, it’s imperative to understand each bet has significantly more outs for the under to hit than the over. An under can hit due to injury, poor performance, benching, trading for a better player, the team’s quarterback going down and tanking the entire offense's production, and many other position-specific factors. A lot of this is reflected in the data presented throughout this article.

There won’t be any actual bets in this article, and if that’s what you are looking for, you can find all of our futures which include player props, here.

Season-Long Player Prop Results

There are multiple ways to splice the data, but let’s start from a macro perspective and work our way down. All of this data was from the closing line, and assumed you got the best number at the closing line.

If we divide it up by year, we can see both years' unders won at a wild rate. The best sports bettors try and strive for 60%. Just blindly betting the under on season-long props would have resulted in a 60% and 63% hit rate. I believe the 3% lower rate of unders hitting is due to the market becoming a bit sharper.

Season-long prop win rates by Category

Starting with 2021, the results are pretty astounding for some categories.

One of the craziest things about the results is that 8 of the 10 categories were profitable towards the under, with the other two coming in right at 50%. The categories with the highest win rates for unders:

• Quarterback rushing touchdowns: 80%
• Passing yards: 78%
• Running back rushing touchdowns: 72%
• Receptions: 65%

While the rate is important, having a bigger sample can help us make more actionable conclusions. So, for example, there were only 5 quarterback rushing touchdown props listed in 2021, so while an 80% hit rate on the surface is impressive, a five-prop sample isn’t nearly enough to draw a conclusion. Let’s move on to 2022…

Like 2021, out of the 10 total categories in 2022, 8 of them were profitable to blindly take all the unders. The most profitable categories in 2022 to bet the under on:

• Passing yards: 71%
• Interceptions: 67%
• Receiving touchdowns: 64%
• Rushing + receiving yards: 62%
• Running Back rushing touchdowns: 62%

There are a few major takeaways from me after seeing both lists. Passing yard unders hit at 71% in 2022 and 78% in 2021, even with a relatively large sample. 43 of 58 available passing props over the last two seasons hit the under (74%).

Interceptions weren’t available in the 2021 database outside of two props that went 1-1. They went 10-20 this year with a 66.6% hit rate towards the under. This could be a market to take advantage of going forward because there are so many outs. An under on any prop comes with the outs I explained in the introduction of injury, performance, etc. Interceptions is unique because if a player is throwing a lot of interceptions, they are at an enhanced risk of being benched and hitting the under. If they are playing well, they probably aren’t throwing interceptions and will go under. It’s a unique angle where if they hit either extreme of playing good or bad, you probably win your bet. Pairing that line of thinking with a strong projection and reasoning for the under could be pretty powerful.

The only other category to make both lists is running back rushing touchdowns. I’m a bit surprised running back stats overall didn’t hit at a higher rate of unders but touchdowns have a solid-two year sample of 62% and 72%. 39-of-59 total (66%) running back touchdown props over the past two seasons combined have gone under.

If we combine all of the props over the past two years, here’s the full table:

Over a two-year sample, overs only had one category that finished with above a 50% hit rate. That was quarterback rushing yards which won 8-of-14 total props offered over the past two years. The next closest hit rate for overs was 43%. Given the small sample size, I honestly wouldn’t put too much stock into that category, regardless. They generally only offer quarterbacks who can run, so if they are healthy, it’s fair they will continue to run and come close to the number. Variance takes over from there, so either way, in a market full of good bets, it’s not one I’m looking to make.

The highest hit rates by category for unders over the past two years are:

• Passing Yards: 74%
• Interceptions: 66%
• RB Rushing Touchdowns: 66%
• QB Rushing Touchdowns: 64%

It’s important to reiterate, I am not recommending blind betting anything, sportsbooks adjust their numbers, and each situation is unique. With that being said, understanding why certain positions or players have higher hit rates for under is important. I already touched on why interceptions could be a great market to exploit this season but passing yards is another good one. We already bet on Jimmy Garoppolo’s under prior to it getting taken down by sportsbooks, but there are extra outs for quarterbacks that don’t necessarily come with other positions.

Coaching, offensive line play, the health of the offensive line and receivers, and many other minute details can all massively impact a quarterback’s total output in addition to any injuries he sustains. Every quarterback’s output is impacted by the factors listed above, and certain situations are more prone to instability than others. For example, Josh Allen’s baseline projection and receiving corps look pretty good, but if Stefon Diggs’ unhappiness resulted in a trade, his receiving corps would become one of the worst in the league and ultimately likely impact his passing stats.

Actionable Takeaways

• Unders hit 63% of the time in 2021 and 60% in 2020.
• Bet unders significantly more often than betting overs. There are so many unforeseen outs for an under to win than an over. I tentatively plan on betting unders for 90%+ of my season-long props.
• If you do bet an over, you need a massive edge or a read on a situation that isn’t already accounted for in the current market.