2023 New York Jets: NFL Betting Odds and Offseason Notes

Mar 31, 2023
2023 New York Jets: NFL Betting Odds and Offseason Notes

Sure, it's early, but sportsbooks are already giving us an early look at divisional betting odds and win totals, so we can't ignore them. The new league year just started, and free agent signings and subsequent roster moves have been rolling in non-stop over the past week. We're unpacking the NFL Draft weekly on Move The Line, and we're still awaiting the schedule release, which should come in mid-May, though we do know who each team plays.

As of this writing, we have a partial picture of what's to come and how to handicap each division, but there are impactful data points still to come over the coming months. So with that said, let's look at each team's current status and how to bet on them.

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New York Jets

Schedule Notes

All AFC East teams face the AFC West and NFC East this season, with their additional three games coming against teams that finished in the same place in their respective division (two in conference, one non-conference), which I'll list below.

2023 Divisional Odds: +250 (FanDuel)

2023 Win Total: 9.5

2022 Record: 7-10

2022 Offensive EPA Rank: 30th

2022 Defensive EPA Rank: 6th

Effective Cap Space (per OverTheCap.com): $4.4 million

First-Round Draft Pick: No. 13

Total Draft Picks: 6

3 Unique 2023 Opponents: Atlanta, Houston, @ Cleveland

The Jets' offseason is highlighted by a move that's yet to happen and likely won't anytime soon. While the internet yells at itself, debating who has leverage and what constitutes as leverage, I'll turn the page and treat the Jets as if Rodgers is already on the roster because that's how the betting market is handling it.

Free Agency Notes

The Jets have made a few moves ahead of the Aaron Rodgers trade, acquiring assets that can be used in a deal while also bringing on reinforcements for in-season. Former Packer Allen Lazard signed what boils down to a 2-year deal, and Mecole Hardman comes over from Kansas City to add depth behind soon-to-be superstar Garrett Wilson. The Jets don't have many needs on the defensive end, but they got younger and better at safety, trading for Baltimore's Chuck Clark to replace 33-year-old Lamarcus Joyner in the back half.

Remaining Roster Priorities

The Jets have needs up front on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they need to find interior linemen, with both Sheldon Rankins (Texans) and Nathan Shepherd (Saints) departing. Offensively, they have options at tackle but need help along the interior of the line. I don't think they'll need to trade their first-round pick, number 13 overall, in the Aaron Rodgers deal, so adding someone like Northwestern lineman Peter Skoronski makes a ton of sense. Skoronki doesn't have the ceiling of some of his 2023 peers, but his floor is high, and he can be plugged into a guard spot now and developed into a tackle in the future.

How To Bet On The New York Jets

This market shifted when Rodgers appeared on Pat McAfee's show, making his desire to play for the Jets known publically for the first time after weeks of speculation. Their win total at 9.5 is just one behind the Buffalo Bills, while their price to win the division is nearly double, priced at +250 on FanDuel. Comparing the Jets' three unique opponents (Falcons, Texans, and Browns) to the Bills (Jaguars, Buccaneers, and Bengals), it's easy to understand why someone would go to the window on the Jets here. I'd prefer their divisional price at +250 over laying -135 to take over 9.5 wins.

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