NBA Player Prop Bets: Terence Davis Shines Again

Feb 14, 2023

NBA Player Prop Bets (February 14, 2023)

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The shortened week of NBA basketball forges on after a mammoth 11-game Monday slate as we head right into a healthy five-game slate on Tuesday with a heap of injury news already in the palms of our hands. With both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum expected to sit out against the Bucks, we should anticipate more line movement and ancillary inactive/active updates as the dominos continue to fall. My three favorite player props for the slate are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!) out of the way, let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (February 14, 2023)

Terence Davis Over 10.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings)

Malik Monk has been ruled out for a second consecutive game, setting Terence Davis up to serve as the Kings’ sixth man for the second game in a row.

Last game in this role, Davis played 32 minutes (including overtime) en route to a 22-point outburst on a 10-17 shooting performance. Having always been a high per-minute producer, Davis should be expecting another strong role with minutes in the mid-to-upper 20s on Tuesday.

In situations this season with Monk off the floor and Davis on, he’s posted a 22.2% usage rate (second-highest on the team behind De’Aaron Fox) and 0.56 points per minute. On these rates alone, he’d only need roughly 20 minutes to hit this over. Obviously, there are more factors, including efficiency, but Davis has proven to be a volume scorer before and can once again.

The Suns' defense is a shell of itself after dealing Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges at the deadline, so he should also expect less resistance than he may have initially, making this another strong over.

Risk: 1.15 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.