March Madness Sweet 16 Odds, Predictions, and Bets

Mar 20, 2023
March Madness Sweet 16 Odds, Predictions, and Bets

The first weekend of March Madness was electric. Farleigh Dickinson became the second 16-seed to beat a No.1 seed as their quick guards ran circles around Purdue’s freshman backcourt. Their run ended with a close loss to Florida Atlantic after winning two consecutive games, including their play-in game. Another surprise is the Princeton Tigers! Princeton upset 2-seed Arizona in the opening round, then smacked down Mizzou 78-63 in the round of 32.

We have been betting on college basketball sides, totals, and player props in our discord for months but are excited to start pumping out more articles. We have Greg (@GHsportsandTech), a professional player prop bettor, Shane (@Sjacksonbet), a knowledgeable college basketball handicapper, and myself all throwing in bets with write-ups. We’ll be giving our best bets every day of the tournament, initially released in the discord but with daily articles as well.

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March Madness Sweet 16 Odds, Predictions, and Bets

Alabama -6 (-110 at DraftKings)

This was played in the subscriber discord once it opened at -6 and is now up to -7. I still think it’s playable at that number. Alabama has played lights out this tournament, predictably demolishing Texas A&M CC 96-75, then continuing to impose their will on Maryland, winning 73-51. Beating Maryland by that much is no small feat, as the Terps are a balanced team that ranks 23rd in overall efficiency, according to KenPom. Alabama ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency and just 18th in offensive efficiency, but a lot of that is skewed by the breakneck pace of play. They rank 5th in tempo and run the court as much as possible. They rank 3rd in points per game at 82.3 and are offensively capable of keeping up with the best teams.

San Diego State is a unique matchup because they have the 5th-ranked defense in adjusted efficiency and play super slow both offensively and defensively. They hold opposing teams to the 346th length of possession.

My concern for the Aztecs largely revolves around where their metrics come from based on who they have played. They played in the Mountain West and largely beat up on middling competition. They played against just three teams in the top 20 of Kenpom’s total efficiency, losing all three games. They lost by 17 to Arizona, four to Arkansas, and seven to St. Mary’s. Alabama is significantly better than all of those teams.

Three other teams from the Mountain West made the tournament this year. All of them not only lost in the first round, but lost by eight, 11, and 25 points to relatively average opponents. San Diego State’s first two opponents in the tournament were 12-seed Charleston and 13-seed Furman. I’m not sure a single team will see this big of a step up in competition from the first weekend to the second weekend.

Risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 a unit

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