Week 9 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Backing the Bengals team total over 25.5 prior to the Ja'Marr Chase news breaking spoiled my week here, but I have two early looks for Week 9.

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I think is the most significant inefficiency in the market: Individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

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*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.

Week 9 NFL Totals Bets

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New York Jets Under 17 Points (-118, FanDuel)

This is posted at 16.5 at most other books. So, instead of waiting and hoping for a 17.5, I'm going to back the under now before the 17, a key number, vanishes.

The Jets offense lost a lot of momentum with the injuries to running back Breece Hall and offensive tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker. Surprising no one, Zach Wilson continues to show a lack of accuracy, with a -5.6 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), the lowest mark for any current NFL starter. He's also struggled against zone defenses this season, which Buffalo uses at the league's third-highest rate. When facing zone defenses, Wilson ranks 37th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in Sports Info Solutions' Points Above Average metric (PAA per play), along with a minuscule 38.8% success rate.

The Bills will use their depth up front to pressure Wilson with their front four and let Wilson make mistakes, and the return of cornerback Tre'Davious White helps bolster one of the league's best defensive units.

Risk: 1.18 units to win 1 unit on FanDuel.

Los Angeles Rams Under 20.5 Points (-120, DraftKings)

This Rams' offense continues to sputter. They're averaging 16.9 points per game this season, the fifth-lowest mark in the league, and there's no reason to be optimistic that a turnaround is coming. The defending Super Bowl champions rank 32nd in offensive EPA per play on the season.

The offensive line is at the heart of the problem here. They have no run game to speak of, rank dead-last in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards metric, and recently lost left tackle Joe Noteboom for the season, only making matters worse. The Buccaneers blitz on 34% of opponent dropbacks this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. They also play a lot of zone behind the pressure that they send, and Matthew Stafford has really struggled against zone this season, ranking 32nd out of 38 qualifiers in PAA per play.

The Buccaneers are getting healthier. Akiem Hicks, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Carlton Davis appear ready to return this week. I believe Cooper Kupp plays here, but he tweaked his ankle late in last week's game against the 49ers, and if he's less than 100% here, the Rams will struggle to sniff 17 points.

Risk: 1.2 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

I will continue to update this column throughout the week with more bets.

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