Week 1 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet From Connor Allen
Football is back! I couldn’t be more excited to finally watch and bet on some regular-season football. NFL player prop bets have become my specialty. In 2020, I won over 35.42 units on official plays through 4for4. Last season, I won 36.84 units. In both seasons I hit over 58% of my bets. We have our own in-house contractor, Dan Rivera, whose primary job is to track all of our plays. If you are interested in the full list of every play I’ve made over the past two years you can check that out here.
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Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
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Brandon Aiyuk Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
We have Brandon Aiyuk projected for 59 receiving yards. There has been a constant drumbeat in training camp that Aiyuk has the best rapport with Trey Lance. They are also squaring up against a Bears defense that will have minimal pass-rush and is starting two rookies in the secondary.
I would play this up to 50 receiving yards but you will almost surely get a better number than that.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Kirk Cousins Over 22.5 Completions (-125 at DK)
By all accounts, whether it's the media or some of my connections to the Vikings' organization, they have all said Kevin O'Connell was brought in to change the passing game and "sling it."
I see them scheming easy completions for Kirk Cousins to get him going. We have him projected for 23.8 completions on 35 attempts, and even that may be too low. He hit the over on this line in 9-of-16 games last season. Even in the old system with Mike Zimmer's run-first approach, he completed 24 passes in one matchup against Green Bay.
It's still a play at 23.5 completions (-115).
Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit DraftKings.
Jarvis Landry Longest Reception Under 18.5 Yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Is Jarvis Landry even going to run a route more than 10 yards downfield? In a game that should feature the running game, Landry likely won't see much volume. This is already -140 at DraftKings and -150 at Caesars.
Risk: 1.20 units to win 1 unit at BetMGM.
Aaron Rodgers Under 23.5 Completions (+102 on Caesars)
*Also playable 23.5 -115 at BetMGM and DraftKings.
Aaron Rodgers went under 24 completions in 11-of-17 games last year and now lost Davante Adams. We also got the news that their best(?) wideout Allen Lazard is banged up and Christian Watson is still working his way back from an off-season knee surgery. I'm expecting a heavy dose of Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, and Romeo Doubs. There's still a chance they hit a deep ball on the Vikings' burnable secondary but I highly doubt they come into Minnesota with a pass-heavy approach or are able to sustain a consistent passing attack given their weapons. We have Rodgers projected for 22.3 completions.
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.02 units at Caesars.
Mike Gesicki Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Mike Gesicki was hardly used during the preseason and has been the talk of many trade rumors. Plain and simple, he doesn't match what they want out of a tight end, so 33.5 receiving yards in a low-volume offense is asking a lot.
Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit DraftKings.
Nick Chubb Under 1.5 Receptions (-129 at Caesars)
Last year in seven games with Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb went under this total in five games. They also will likely work in D'Ernest Johnson a bit, too, and I expect them to focus on the ground game with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.
Risk: 1.29 units to win 1 unit at Caesars.
Travis Etienne Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at DraftKings)
I normally try to avoid betting running back receiving overs but I don't think sportsbooks and most projections have accounted for how big of a factor Travis Etienne will be in the passing game. He crushed in the receiving game (588 receiving yards in 12 games as a senior) with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback in college and he has reportedly been the team's biggest playmaker in camp. Getting him into space in the receiving game will likely be one of their key focuses. Given his explosiveness and our expectation that the offense takes a step forward, he could absolutely crush this number.
Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 3.5 receptions (-110 at BetMGM)
The Chiefs' wide receiver situation is extremely murky and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has never been a volume-based wideout. I expect him and Mecole Hardman to run a ton of clear-out routes with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce soaking up a lot of the targets underneath. We have him projected for 2.4 receptions, comfortably under his number of 3.5.
Risk 1.10 units to win 1 unit BetMGM.
Josh Jacobs Under 2.5 Receptions (-140 at BetMGM)
Ameer Abdullah was brought in to be the team's pass-catching back and Zamir White figures to mix in on early downs as well. We have him projected for 1.7 receptions, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees even fewer than two targets depending on the roles of Abdullah and White.
Risk 1.40 units to win 1 unit BetMGM.
Josh Reynolds Under 2.5 receptions (-135 at BetMGM)
Josh Reynolds will likely be behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Chark, and D'Andre Swift in the pecking order for targets. Most of his breakout games last season didn’t come until the target competition was just St. Brown. We have him projected for 1.5 receptions and I wouldn’t be surprised if he only saw 3-4 targets here.
Risk 1.35 units to win 1 unit BetMGM.
Thursday Night Football Bets
Record: 1-2 (-1.25 units)
Isaiah McKenzie falling four yards short of his prop tilted our night from a winning night to a losing one. I couldn't have been more right about Cam Akers, who finished with zero yards on three carries. I advised in the Discord to upgrade your positions on Akers or even potentially add some Darrell Henderson props! I couldn't have been more wrong about Allen Robinson, though, who saw just one target despite playing nearly every snap for the offense.
Allen Robinson Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Let's go! Football is back. Allen Robinson is in a great position to crush this year. When speaking with and listening to a few NFL insiders, they could not stop mentioning how excited Sean McVay is about Allen Robinson. They are all chalking up Robinson's poor play last year to Matt Nagy and the offense, plus Robinson essentially giving up.
Despite that, Robinson still was well above average in Matt Harmon's success rate versus man coverage last year in his reception perception study, which shows how often a player gets open. McVay plans to use Robinson all over the formation and have him be extremely involved in the offense.
The game script should set up pretty well for some overs here. The Bills will be without Tre'Davious White. While they posted elite numbers last year (No. 1 in pass EPA and No. 1 in explosive pass rate allowed), their schedule did them a ton of favors as they played against marginal NFL starters for nearly half the season.
The Rams also may lean on the pass here with Cam Akers still not running at full speed and Darrell Henderson returning from an injury of his own. The Rams were so worried about their running backs that they held out Kyren Williams in their third preseason game.
I'd play this up to 60 and I think that's about where it closes.
Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit at FanDuel.
Cam Akers Under 60.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110 at Caesars or -120 at DK)
As of a few days ago, Cam Akers was still not running at full speed while Darrell Henderson has returned fully to practice. They both were full participants Tuesday but this is a bad sign for Akers who is still returning from an Achilles' injury. The Rams also rested Kyren Williams in the third preseason game because they were unsure of Akers' status.
Even as the primary workhorse in the playoffs, Akers still only went over this line half the time. He needed 27 and 18 touches to do so. He averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. The history of running backs returning from an Achilles injury and being efficient again in their career is 0/12 in the past 10 years.
Sean McVay has told multiple trustworthy beat reporters all offseason he plans on divvying up the workload between Henderson and Akers this season, a change in approach from previous years where they relied on one workhorse running back. There is a chance Kyren Williams gets involved here too if they want to work Akers back in slowly. Sean Mcvay recently heaped significant praise on the rookie saying he would have a chance to prove himself “live.” Williams is also excellent at pass protection, which signals he could be involved on passing downs. Regardless, they have also hinted at Henderson being the one more involved on passing downs rather than Akers. With his pass-game role in doubt, I'm very skeptical he can get over this number solely on the ground.
Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit at Caesars.
Isaiah McKenzie Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DK)
Isaiah McKenzie was a full participant in practice today and we have him projected for 47 receiving yards. He has been operating as the clear No. 1 slot receiver during training camp and now figures to step back into that role. This got pulled quickly but is popping up across the market in the high 20s. I would play it up to 32.5 but you should be able to get a better number than that.
Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.
I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.
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