NCAAB Conference Tournament Betting Preview: Conference USA

Mar 06, 2022

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It’s almost time for March Madness to tee off and for those of you who haven’t been paying attention all season, there’s no better time to dive in than now. Rather than waiting until the NCAA tournament, the conference tournaments will be chock-full of high-intensity action and many teams playing for their tickets into the big dance. Mike Randle and I are breaking down the top teams from each conference and providing background on who they should be paying attention to and what to bet on.

2022 NCAA Tournament Betting Previews

Conference USA Bracket

Conference USA Odds and Betting Breakdown

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*Lines accurate at time of publication (Odds via FanDuel)

The Defending Champion

North Texas (No. 1 Seed)

Odds: +185

North Texas won the 2021 Conference USA tournament as the No. 3 seed from the west side of the bracket after finishing just sixth in conference play. They made a run through the conference tournament and actually upset Purdue in the NCAA tournament before falling to Villanova. They have parlayed that success into an even better 2022 season. They paired stingy defense (18th in adjusted efficiency) with a dreadfully slow pace (357th in adjusted tempo). This has led to a 23-4 regular-season record. They don’t have any big wins on the season with their best win being a 1-point victory over UAB at home. They also lost to them earlier in the season on the road. On the other hand, they haven’t lost a game since January 6th, riding a 15-game winning streak heading into the conference tournament.

Guard Tylor Perry leads the team in points per game (13.7) while Thomas Bell leads the team in rebounds 6.7 per game). Some other factors to consider:

They are an abysmal 66.7% free throw shooting team (328th).
They are a legitimately good three-point shooting team, making 37.2% of their attempts behind the arc, good for 34th in the country.

The Favorite

UAB (No. 2 Seed)

Odds: +170

UAB isn’t an overwhelming favorite, narrowly edging out North Texas for the top spot with just a 15-cent difference on FanDuel. They rely on efficient three-point shooting, making 37.6% of their threes (22nd in the country). Combine this with the 35th-best turnover rate and 41st-best offensive rebounding rate and you have a legitimately dangerous offense.

Their defense isn’t stellar but is respectable by C-USA standards, ranking 72nd with the 26th-best turnover rate, 9th-best steal rate and 47th-best 2-point field goal percentage allowed. They don’t have any marquee wins per se, but only lost to San Francisco by two points early in the season. Junior Guard Jordan Walker is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 19.2 points per game and providing most of the team’s offensive firepower.

The Sleeper

Louisiana Tech (No. 3 Seed)

Odds: +850

To be frank, there is a really good chance one of UAB or North Texas wins the Conference USA tournament. They are both significantly better than the next best team, Louisiana Tech, who ranks just 94th in offensive efficiency and 120th in defensive efficiency. Relative to all other teams in the NCAA, they are slightly above average at nearly everything but also not elite at any one thing. Their best facet has to be their lack of turnovers offensively, where they rank 52nd nationally.