NCAA CBB Best Bets: Wildcats Due For a Letdown
It is time for another 150-game Saturday slate in the college hoops world. Well, technically 144 contests, but who's really counting?
This big of a slate can be overwhelming to bettors, which is why we are trying to assist by offering up a few of our favorite picks each week. This column went 3-0 last Saturday, which we needed in the worst way, but it is time to build off that. My Betstamp verified record is now 52-42-1 (+6.9 units) entering the weekend.
Saturday’s slate features several marquee matchups, such as UCLA at Arizona, Baylor at Oklahoma, Alabama at Missouri, TCU at Kansas, Marquette at Seton Hall, and so much more. Don’t forget about the Big Sky showdown between Montana State and Montana either.
Let’s dive into my favorite plays of the day, shall we?
Today’s CBB Best Bets
Texas Tech +5 at Kansas State (-110, DraftKings)
This is a prime letdown spot for the Wildcats. Kansas State just secured an overtime victory over No. 2 Kansas on Tuesday in the Octagon of Doom, making a statement to the rest of the college basketball world that Jerome Tang’s squad is for real. But both the players and fans will have a difficult time turning the page to a hungry Texas Tech team on Saturday.
Mark Adams’ Red Raiders have started league play with a 0-6 record, but five of those losses came by six points or fewer. ShotQuality has graded two of those league defeats as victories, and this team feels beyond due at this point. Fardaws Aimaq also recently returned to the fold, which should provide the Red Raiders with a post presence that could cause problems for the Wildcats.
TTU might not pull off the upset against Kansas State, but this spread should be much closer to a single possession than its opening price would suggest. This was going to be a full-unit play, but the line dropped from 5.5 right before filing this story and thus we will have to settle for a half-unit wager instead.
Risk: 0.55 units at DraftKings to win 0.5 unit (Playable to 4.5)
Towson -9.5 at Elon (-110, Caesars)
Pat Skerry has the Towson Tigers rolling once again in the Colonial Athletic Association after a tough stretch in December, where this team lost five in a row at one point. The Tigers are now 5-2 in league play and have won three in a row in convincing fashion, including a 79-62 victory over North Carolina A&T on Thursday and a 68-47 win over Hofstra on Monday.
During this win streak, Towson has covered the spread by double figures (20, 21, & 12) in each game. The Tigers will clean up all of their mistakes in this matchup, as they rank top-20 in offensive rebound rate while Elon is 312th in defensive rebound rate. Elon has lost nine in a row, with six of those being by eight points or more. Towson should take care of business in this one to keep its season on track.
Risk: 0.55 units at Caesars to win 0.5 unit (Playable to 10)
Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona Over 147 Points (-110, DraftKings)
It is always fun to keep tabs on the Big Sky, and while the Montana schools are set to face off on Saturday, we are focusing on a clash between Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona in this column instead. David Riley has the Eagles 7-0 in league play, and they are doing so in an extremely fun way.
Eastern Washington ranks 79th in adjusted tempo, while being top-30 in effective field goal percentage and top-20 in two-point percentage. This unsurprisingly has led to five overs since conference play began, including four in the last five outings. This includes a 83-75 win over Northern Colorado that finished over the total of 153.5.
The market was backing Northern Arizona earlier this week ahead of its 88-83 loss to Idaho on Thursday. With Jalen Cone back in the mix, as he scored 22 in his return, don’t be surprised if the Lumberjacks give us a game here. At the very least, we are counting on them to bring enough offensively to help get this over home.
Risk: 1.1 units at DraftKings to win 1 unit (Playable to 149)
For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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