NBA Player Prop Bets: Jimmy Butler, Lone Survivor

Jan 10, 2023

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Continuing yesterday’s theme of manageable NBA slates, we have another one here on Tuesday, with seven games and a heap of injury situations to monitor. As always, my three favorite player props are listed below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 10, 2023)

Killian Hayes Over 14.5 Points (-107 at BetRivers)

Killian Hayes doesn’t profile as an offensive alpha often, but given the state of the Pistons and the fact they’re without both Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic on Tuesday, he may not have much of a choice.

In nearly 300 minutes with both Cunningham and Bogdanovic off the floor this season, Hayes has posted a 22.3% usage rate and 15.3 shot attempts per 36 minutes. That volume alone makes this prop an intriguing one to target. On top of this, Hayes has played in at least 34 minutes in four of his last five games, while scoring 18+ points in three of those four games. The lone outlier—a nine-point effort on 3-12 shooting in 35 minutes against the Warriors. The volume, production, and playing time have all been there outside of said outlier.

With the value leaning towards the over, I want to pounce on this before the value, or line shifts the other way.

Risk: 1.07 units on BetRivers to win 1 unit.