Trader's Alley: Week 6 Buy Low, Sell High, and Hold
Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Trader’s Alley for the 2021 fantasy football season. As the fantasy season nears its midpoint, we’re starting to see a clear separation between offenses who will have week-to-week fantasy relevancy regardless of matchup, while other teams will only have a few valuable (or even rosterable) players besides the occasional sneak start. With the help of the Hot Spots App and some opportunity metrics, we can spot some clear regression candidates worth moving for maximum value, as well as some undervalued players worth targeting regardless of your league settings.
Below is my Buy Low, Sell High, and Hold recommendations heading into Week 6. In addition to this article, don’t forget to use the 4for4 Trade Evaluator to try and mine even more value out of your moves. And remember, these recommendations are just the beginning of your fantasy trade considerations. Every league and every team is different. These are just some of the players who I’m interested in this week.
Trade for D’Andre Swift
After a mediocre Week 4 against the Bears where he earned a season-low eight carries, Swift bounced back in a big way last Sunday, gaining 104 total yards and a touchdown, and earned six-plus targets for the fourth time in five games. Even on the Lions’ middling offense, Swift continues to earn a massive amount of the team’s high-value touches and currently ranks fourth in expected PPR points per game (via PFF’s XFP model) behind Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Najee Harris.
Even with the efficient performance in Week 5, Swift is still under-performing expectations on the season and can be considered a positive regression candidate based on the quality of his touches week in and week out. His floor is still somewhat low, as his 12-opportunity day in Week 4 illustrated, but Swift’s current manager may not realize just how valuable a workload Swift has as a receiver. In PPR or half-PPR formats, he’s a top-15 running back and every-week starter the rest of the season.
Trade Marquise Brown
Brown capped-off Baltimore’s incredibly comeback victory in Week 5 with a game-winning touchdown, his second of the day, en route to 33.5 PPR points, the third-highest among all wideouts. The beneficiary of a revamped Baltimore passing offense that no longer ranks at the bottom of the league in attempts per game, Brown earned double-digit targets for the second time in five weeks last Monday, and scored a long touchdown on a beautiful double move, leaving his defender completely in the dust. Brown is finally playing up to his first-round draft status, and is absolutely a buy in dynasty formats, but in season-long leagues, Brown is over-performing his expected production by 31.0%, the highest of all top-24 wide receivers (in XFP).
Despite the Ravens being more efficient than ever on a per-pass basis, Brown ranks outside the top-30 receivers in air yards share and doesn’t even lead his team in target share or receptions. Brown is a fantastic player and should have a very solid rest of the year, but with the Ravens getting first-round pick Rashod Bateman this week, there’s enough uncertainty to try and move Brown for another more consistent top-24 receiver.
Trade Keenan Allen
It’s been a mildly infuriating season for Keenan Allen’s fantasy managers this season, as they’ve watched the Los Angeles Chargers offense, led by budding superstar Justin Herbert, flourish under Herbert and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, but not to the benefit of Allen. Allen still leads the team in snap share, target share, and red zone target share, but ranks a distant second in receiving yards, and most importantly, especially for fantasy football, fellow wide receiver Mike Williams has absolutely smashed Allen in the touchdown department, scoring six to Allen’s one entering Week 6.
Allen is still a vital part of his offense and is a positive regression candidate himself, but it’s clear that from a scheme standpoint, Williams has the more valuable role (some have deemed it the “Michael Thomas” role, based on Thomas’ success during Lombardi’s time in New Orleans), and limits the upside of the perennial target-hog Allen. Games with 15-plus targets for Allen, which we saw multiple times a season ago, seem much less likely in the Lombardi system than under previous Chargers’ regimes. With an extremely difficult string of games ahead for Los Angeles (their rest of season aFPA ranking is sixth-toughest in the league), Allen still carries a massive name brand and remains a featured player on a high-powered offense, which should allow you to get a top-12 overall player in return. He’s still the WR8 in our rest of season rankings.
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