NFL Week 15: Spread Bets

Week 14 Recap: I essentially broke even last Sunday, even when you factor in the juice. My two losses were Washington (+4.5 vs. Cowboys) and the Texans (+7.5 vs. Seattle), while my two victories were the Falcons (+115 at Panthers) and Broncos (-8.5 vs. Lions). With Atlanta cashing outright on the Moneyline, I finished at -0.05 units for the week.

My overall record now sits at 23-20 ATS this NFL season.

Week 15 NFL Spread Bets

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Shame on me for backing the Texans in back-to-back weeks but I about fell out of my chair when I saw the Jaguars were laying five points this weekend as home chalk. I can get on board with a lot of narratives, but this idea the Jaguars are suddenly going to turn into a competent team now that the dark cloud that was Urban Meyer is no longer hanging over their heads is ridiculous.

Trevor Lawrence might be the most talented quarterback to come out of college since Andrew Luck and I truly hope the Jaguars don’t ruin this kid before he has an opportunity to show the NFL what he can really do. That said, his 14 interceptions are tied with Joe Burrow for most in the NFL this season and he’s coming off a four-pick game against the Titans. For the first time in 200 games, Jacksonville was shutout on the road last week. While Meyer deserves most of the blame for the Jaguars’ failures this season, he’s not the only reason they’re 2-11.

This is a matchup of two of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. With the Jaguars averaging 13.9 points per game and the Texans averaging 13.6 points per game (PPG), they’re the only two teams scoring under 16 PPG in the NFL this season. So why the hell would I lay five points with a 2-11 Jacksonville team that got rocked by Houston in Week 1?

Pick: 1.10 units on Texans +5 at FanDuel to win 1 unit.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions

I faded the Lions coming off their lone win of the season last week in Denver and I’ll be doing so again on Sunday when they face a pissed off Arizona team that has yet to lose on the road this season.

All seven of the Cardinals’ road victories this season have come by double-digit points. According to ESPN Stats & Information, they could join the 1984 49ers (who won the Super Bowl that year) as the only teams to win eight road games by double-digits in a single regular season. Kyler Murray is also one of three players with four passing touchdowns in multiple road games this season, joining the likes of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

Losing DeAndre Hopkins for the remainder of the season is a tough blow for the Cardinals, but at least they still have the underrated James Conner. He’s gone seven straight games with a touchdown and he has proven that when healthy, he’s an effective back that adds a balanced element in Kliff Kingsbury’s explosive offense.

On the other side, the Lions have lost eight straight games as double-digit underdogs. The last time they played at Ford Field, they shocked the Vikings for their first victory of the season. The problem is that their defense is incredibly slow at all three levels and if Denver can expose that weakness, what do you think Murray and Arizona will do this Sunday in Detroit?

Pick: 1.10 units on Cardinals -11.5 at Fanduel to win 1 unit.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have quietly been one of the hottest teams in the NFL during the second half of the season. On Sunday they’ll be seeking their sixth straight win after starting the season 1-7, which would tie the 1974 Jets for longest winning streak after starting 1-7 or worse. Miami is the third team with a five-game winning streak and a seven-game losing streak in the same season.

What has been the biggest key to their turnaround? Their defense ranks second in the league in opponent yards per game (280.8) and opponent Total QBR (20.3) during their current win streak. After a rough start, Brian Flores continues to prove he gets the most out of the talent he’s given.

The other reason for Miami’s dramatic turnaround is second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has completed 70% of his passes in three straight games. Only Ryan Tannehill of the Titans has a longer streak in Dolphins’ history with a minimum of 30 attempts.

As for the Jets, they’ve lost 10 straight division games, which is the longest streak by any AFC East team since the introduction of eight divisions in 2002. That’s tied for the longest streak in any division in the last five seasons.

While he doesn’t have much around him in terms of an experienced supporting cast or coaching staff, the bottom line is rookie Zach Wilson has struggled. When you watch him play, it’s apparent he can’t read defenses, his decision making is slow and his footwork is terrible. I was a fan of his coming out of BYU, but thus far he has proven his critics right and he’s likely to be eaten alive by Miami’s defense on Sunday.

Pick: 1.10 units on Dolphins -9.5 at DraftKings to win 1 unit.

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