NFL Week 13 Betting Picks: Against The Spread
Week 13 comes on the heels of Thanksgiving week, bringing us back to a normal schedule. Four teams—Panthers, Browns, Packers, Titans—will be out of action this week.
Exactly like the week before, we are coming off a difficult-to-swallow 1-2 result. Our first game of the week was Bears -3. They were covering before inexplicably giving up a touchdown drive and the lead to the Lions. The Bears got the ball with eight-and-a-half minutes to go in the game and put on a ridiculously sustained drive. The drive had a goal to go at the Lions' four-yard line with 1:09 left on the clock. The Lions did not conserve the timeouts necessary, and after three kneel-downs, the Bears kicked a game-winning field goal to win by two while laying three. The Bills came through with an easy win and cover on Thursday night. That left just the Chargers -2.5 at Denver. The Chargers dug themselves an early hole, giving up two rushing touchdowns. After climbing their way back into the game, Justin Herbert threw a pick-six that essentially iced the game. The discouraging thing is the Chargers did not stick with what has worked for them. Keenan Allen again had more targets than Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams, and it is no surprise that brought another loss.
Moving on to this week’s betting picks. We will have three plays, all of which are favorites falling under the 1:00 PM EST start times on Sunday. Let’s dive in.
Week 13 Spread Picks
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons got Cordarrelle Patterson back last week, and he went right back to being the entirety of their offense. They notched a win against the lowly Jaguars, but now have a seismic shift in difficulty of opponent. This will be the second time these NFC South foes face each other this year. The first was a 23-point blowout for the Bucs. Things have gotten worse for the Falcons since.
The Falcons offense still had Calvin Ridley in that first matchup. Ridley remains away from the team for the time being. What is notable for the Falcons offense in that first matchup was a lack of production from Patterson. With Patterson being the only player truly contributing on offense, it is quite alarming that he could be taken away. We know the Bucs do well to stop the rush. The question in this matchup is, how do the Falcons move the ball if Patterson is slowed down? The answer is they can't. Only four teams have scored fewer points than the Falcons this year and they are averaging eight points per game over their last three.
The Falcons will not only have difficulty scoring but difficulty stopping the Bucs as well. They have only played two offenses I would deem to be in the league’s upper echelon this season—Dallas and Tampa Bay. The Falcons allowed 43 and 48 points in those matchups. They will likely give up a ton of points once again and have an inability to answer on offense.
Pick: Buccaneers -11 on DraftKings.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
This AFC South matchup is the second in the set for the Colts and Texans this season. The Colts won the first matchup at home 31-3, and that was before they truly hit their stride. The Colts have won five of their last seven games dating back to that first Houston matchup, with the two losses coming by one score to both the high-end Titans and Buccaneers. That stretch includes a 2-0 road mark, with wins coming in San Francisco and Buffalo. Those are certainly not easy places to play and the Colts still came away with winning margins of 12 and 26 points. This matchup is a much simpler one.
The Houston offense remains absolutely anemic. No team in the NFL has scored fewer points than the Texans, and they have had some real offensive duds. The Texans have scored nine or fewer points in six of their 11 games. With such an awful offense, the defense has to keep them competitive, right? No, not so much. Only four teams have allowed more points than Houston. If it is not obvious, an inability to score combined with allowing a plethora of points can lead to blowouts. That has been the result for the Texans. In seven games against teams with winning records, the Texans are 1-6. The one win was against the Titans sans Derrick Henry. That was an odd game as the yardage difference was massively in favor of the Titans. The other six games were all Houston losses by an average of 20.5 points per game. Only one of the losses was within a single score.
This matchup is just a brutal one for the Texans. Even if they can get a semblance of offense going, the defense will be progressively and continuously beaten down by Jonathan Taylor. The defense will be on the field allowing sustained drives and the offense will be turned one dimensional. The Texans can’t push the ball down the field and it takes away the effectiveness of their lone playmaker in Brandin Cooks. Take the Colts in a beat down.
Pick: Colts -8.5 on DraftKings.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
It was unthinkable a month ago, but the Dolphins are officially one of the league’s hottest teams. The return of Tua Tagovailoa jump-started an offense that was struggling to no end. His return coincided with the defense returning to 2020 form. In fairness, it was difficult to truly gauge how good or bad the defense was while Jacoby Brissett was starting. Brissett could not manage to keep the offense on the field and the defense was crushed via time of possession. Clearly, things are better now with competent quarterback play.
The Giants, on the other hand, continue to fall short of realistic expectations. They are up and down and have not found ways to win on the road. The Giants have alternated wins and losses in their last six games, with last week being a win at home. They now have to hit the road, where they are 1-4 this season. The offense faces a tough task with the Dolphins' front-to-back improved defense. That is especially daunting given the offensive struggles of the Giants. The firing of Jason Garrett made him a scapegoat, but he was not the real problem. They only managed to put up 13 points last week without Garrett. That is just the latest in a six-game stretch where they average 16.3 points per game.
The Dolphins' defense against the Giants' offense is the key matchup in this game. I mentioned the 'Phins are hot on defense, and the numbers reflect it. Their current four-game winning streak coincides with the defense allowing just 11.5 points per game in that span. They did not allow more than 17 in any of those games. They will hold the Giants' bumbling offense down and should cruise to an easy win.
Pick: Dolphins -5 on DraftKings.
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