NFL Week 12: Spread Bets

Week 11 Recap: For the first time this NFL season, I’ve posted back-to-back losing Sundays. After going 1-2 ATS in Week 10, I matched that record with another 1-2 Sunday in Week 11, as the Browns failed to cover as a double-digit home favorite versus the lowly Lions and the Saints fell too far behind to mount a successful comeback in Philadelphia. My lone win was the Washington Football Team, which won outright as a three-point dog in Carolina.

My season record now stands at 19-14 ATS, which is good, but we need to get back on the winning track this Sunday.

Week 12 NFL Spread Bets

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Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots

The Patriots have been the best team in the league for roughly a month and have outscored opponents 70-0 since trailing the Browns 7-0 in the first quarter of their Week 10 win in Foxborough. They’ve allowed a grand total of zero points across their last 19 opponent drives, producing nine sacks, five interceptions and forcing foes to go 3-for-21 on third downs during that stretch.

The Titans, meanwhile, are coming off an ugly loss to the Texans in which QB Ryan Tannehill tossed four interceptions in a 22-13 defeat. Tennessee only has three losses this season. Inexplicably, two of those defeats came at the hands of bottom-feeding Houston and New York (Jets).

Despite the above facts, I’m taking Tennessee to cover this Sunday in New England. Mike Vrabel is 16-10 straight up as an underdog over his coaching career, which is the second-best winning percentage (.615) by any head coach in the Super Bowl era (minimum five games), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Five of those 16 outright wins as an underdog have come this season, as the Titans are a perfect 5-0 straight up as a dog in 2021. That’s remarkable.

Bill Belichick and the Pats have also had their share of issues with Vrabel and the Titans, with their latest defeat coming to Tennessee in the 2019 AFC Wild Card Playoffs. If you remember correctly, that was Tom Brady’s final game with New England and his final pass resulted in a pick-six. Vrabel has also beaten his former head coach both times since taking over as the Titans head coach in 2018, beating Belichick and New England 34-10 in Nashville that same season.

Because Vrabel learned from Belichick, these two teams are similarly constructed and prepare for games in a similar manner from week to week. Despite the Patriots’ recent hot stretch, I don’t see this matchup being as lopsided as Vegas.

Pick: 1.10 units on Titans +7 at PointsBet to win 1.0.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

I kicked myself for not taking the Steelers last Sunday night in L.A. While they shouldn’t have covered versus the Chargers, they nevertheless produced another winning ticket as an underdog under Mike Tomlin.

Since 2018, the Steelers are 11-4 against the spread as a road pup under Tomlin. They also won eight of those games outright, including their 23-16 victory over the Bills in Buffalo in Week 1, their 27-19 win over the Broncos in Week 5 and their 15-10 victory over the Browns in Week 8 of this season.

While they did lose to this same Cincinnati team at home back in Week 3, the Steelers have also owned the Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger has 24 career wins against the Bengals, which is tied with the Browns for most against a single opponent in his career. While he has dropped each of his last two games versus Cincinnati, he is also playing his best ball of the season. While leading the Steelers to a 4-1 record, Big Ben has thrown nine touchdowns to zero interceptions while also completing passes at a 66.5% clip over his last five games.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow didn’t throw an interception in last week’s win over the Raiders but that snapped a streak of five consecutive games with at least one pick. Cincy is 6-1 this season when Burrow throws zero or one interception and is 0-3 when he throws multiple picks. If the Steelers can contain rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase and force Burrow into a couple of mistakes, they could win this game outright. Either way, I love having four points in my back pocket in a game I believe will be decided by a field goal.

Pick: 1.10 units on Steelers +4 at DraftKings to win 1.0.

New York Jets at Houston Texans

File this one in the I-Know-I’m-Going-to-Regret-This category: I’m backing the Jets.

Yes, those Jets.

Since the Texans pulled off the upset last Sunday in Nashville, public bettors are backing Houston at over a 60% clip this weekend versus New York. That’s understandable, but something still feels dirty about the majority of the public’s money being on a 2-8 Texans team.

Yes, I realize the Jets are terrible but you could use the same word to describe the Texans. Houston is dead last in total offense, dead last in rushing, dead last in points per game (15.0) and second-to-last in passing. Defensively, they rank 30th overall, 30th against the run and 30th in points allowed (27.1).

Even though he was injured, I also wonder if the time off did wonders for rookie QB Zach Wilson. He’s now four weeks removed from his PCL injury and he’s fully healthy. More importantly, he was able to observe over the past month without worrying about taking a beating on Sunday behind one of the worst lines in football. Keep in mind he was fast-tracked into the starting job by a rookie head coach and rookie offensive coordinator. Just like Wilson, Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur are both learning on the job, too.

Wilson is returning to a Jets team that has thrown for over 250 yards in four straight games, which, believe it or not, is one shy of the longest streak in franchise history. Here’s an even more shocking figure: The Jets’ 435.8 yards per game over their last four contests is actually best in the NFL. Thus, perhaps LaFleur is finally settling into a groove as a play caller and now gets his raw, but talented rookie signal-caller back for a matchup against a Houston team with a bad defense.

Give me the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! (I’m totally going to regret this.)

Pick: 1.10 units on Jets +2.5 at DraftKings to win 1.0.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

All the Vikings do is play close games, which is one of the reasons I’ll be taking the points with Minnesota on Sunday. Nine of the Vikings’ 10 games this season have been decided by seven points or fewer, including seven straight. Granted, they’re 4-5 straight up in those games, but Minnesota is also playing its best football of the season.

Since suffering a Week 8 home loss to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, the Vikings gave the Ravens hell in Baltimore before losing 34-31 in overtime, went to L.A. and knocked off the Chargers 27-20, then flew back home for a date with the division-leading Packers last Sunday and knocked them off 34-31 in a wild affair. The win over Green Bay gave Minnesota ATS victories in each of its last three games and in four of its last five overall.

Kirk Cousins is also quietly having a great season, tossing 21 touchdown passes to only two interceptions, which is the best TD-to-INT ratio in the league. There’s a narrative he doesn’t play well on the road, but he has 19 touchdown passes to zero interceptions in his last eight away games dating back to last season. Only Tom Brady (nine straight twice) has had a longer streak of road starts without an interception.

The 49ers, meanwhile, have won back-to-back games while upsetting the Rams 31-10 on MNF two weeks ago, then thumping overmatched Jacksonville 30-10 last Sunday. Still, the Niners have had the Rams’ number of late and the Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league, so I don’t know how much San Francisco has proven. This is still the same team Colt McCoy took to the woodshed three weeks ago and the Niners could struggle to contain Minnesota's skill players—Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen.

Pick: 1.04 units on Vikings +3 at FanDuel to win 1.0.

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