NFL Week 11 Lookahead Lines Report

Trying to predict where each game's line is going to re-open isn't complicated, but it's invaluable. Last week was successful in terms of gaining closing line value in a number of spots. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough to cash winning bets. Tailing the Bills and Cowboys plays got you more than three points in each spot, both moving through key numbers, but then both squads lost outright as double-digit favorites. Such is life. Perhaps your mortgage lender is more generous than mine, but currently, they're not accepting closing line value in place of actual dollars. Tough scene. With that said, the goal should always be to get the best number possible on a side you like. Despite last week's results, we move onward.

Friends don't let friends bet NFL sides on game day. I understand the appeal of getting action down on a game that's about to kick off, but please, for the love of all things sacred, don't do it. In my opinion, the only way to consistently put yourself in a position to gain positive expected value (+EV) while betting on NFL sides is to beat the closing line. Sportsbooks gradually increase the limits they let bettors get down as the week progresses, which is an indication the book feels they've priced the game correctly. Unless you're waiting later in the week because you're betting five-to-six figures on a side, your +EV increases if you can get down on a number before it's sharpened by the whales.

Each week of the season I provide a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of lookahead lines. This brief lookahead window provides a sneak peek at how teams are valued by bookmakers prior to the start of the week. It's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of the recency bias that comes after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down you'd like, depending on your unit sizing. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was.

When I take a position on a lookahead line, I believe the current number will beat the closing line. At times, it ends up being the best of the number, which is ideal. Basically, I'm parlaying my handicap. In essence, if I'm right in my Week 10 evaluation of the team and market, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 11.

For reference, I'll be using the initial odds released by Westgate back in May to show you how the game opened. You can use the game tiles below to find the best number, and the spread listed is based on the home team:

Week 11 Lookahead Lines Takeaways

I'm always on the hunt for scheduling and travel advantages. For the most part, these quirks are already baked into the number, but there are instances each week that aren't accurately accounted for in the market.

Byes: Rams & Broncos

Patriots @ Falcons (+4)

Blindly betting against rookie head coaches on Thursday night, especially when they're the inferior team, is something I won't hesitate to do. The quick turnaround from a game-planning perspective is challenging for any coaching staff, particularly so when it's your first time driving the bus. Regardless of what happens in Week 10, I don't think this balloons much higher if the Patriots are your lean here.

Saints @ Eagles (PK)

Few teams are less consistent week to week than these two clubs. Week 10's results could impact this line in a big way, as both teams are in coin-flip matchups on the road. On paper, this appears to be a bad matchup for the Eagles and their run-first approach on offense. The Saints have the best run defense in the league, ranking first in both Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA metric and adjusted-line yards on the defensive line. In Week 9's home loss to the Falcons, Atlanta had a rushing success rate of 0%. Zero. If the Saints are your lean here, I think you wait. An Eagles win on the road in Denver in Week 10 could move this a bit.

Colts @ Bills (-6.5)

Indianapolis is one of the best run-stuffing defensive units in the league, but that's somewhat irrelevant against the Bills. Buffalo has been less pass-happy this year compared to last year's squad, but offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has shown a willingness to abandon the run and let Josh Allen chuck it around the yard when the matchup is conducive to doing so. A rematch of last year's Wild Card round, I like the Bills laying less than seven points here against the Colts.

Lions @ Browns (-10)

The Lions are on the prowl to be the league's first-ever 0-17 team. What an accomplishment! And to reach 17 losses in the first year that it's possible, I mean, we really need to hand it to Detroit. Now, they certainly could hang with the Bears, Broncos or Falcons later in the season, but they're not getting off the mat here against the Browns. If Cleveland wins in New England in Week 10 and the Lions get curb-stomped by the Steelers, a move towards 14 is way more likely than a dip under 10.

Ravens @ Bears (+6)

If the Dolphins and Bears met on a neutral field, what would that line be? This is a similar situation to the current week's matchups, with the Ravens likely to close as 7.5-point road favorites against Miami. It was 6-6.5 in the lookaheads, just like this matchup against the Bears. With Chicago on bye in Week 10, they can't do anything to move the needle in the court of public opinion, but a dominant win by the Ravens in Miami on Thursday night likely moves this to—and eventually through the—7.

Bengals @ Raiders (PK)

The Bengals come off their Week 10 bye and head to Las Vegas to face the Raiders. Cincinnati has lost two straight, and a look under the hood shows an offense that might not be as good as we thought. Long term, I'm bullish on all the skill position players for the Bengals, but a playoff run will only come with improved efficiency. Splash plays in the passing game will continue. Overall, the Bengals rank 23rd in offensive DVOA, which I'm sure is lower than you'd have guessed if I asked you. The gap between their top-10 ranking in points per drive and 22nd spot in yards per drive shows a reliance on big plays, something less sustainable and predictable week in and week out. Defensively, the Raiders have done a terrific job limiting explosive pass plays this season, ranking in the top five all season. If they can slow down the Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase-Tee Higgins trio they'll be in good shape in this spot.

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-1)

The Seahawks managed to tread water with Geno Smith at quarterback and are positioned to make a run at a playoff spot with Russell Wilson set to return in Week 10. The path will be challenging because the rest of the NFC West is strong, but this would be a good start. With the Cardinals set as double-digit favorites in Week 10 and Seattle on the road in Green Bay, this is likely the best of the number if you're backing the Cardinals, while Seahawks backers could catch points when this re-posts on Sunday night.

Cowboys @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs at home laying less than three points was an autoplay two months ago. What a time to be alive. I have little faith in the recent 'improvements' by the Chiefs defensively, believing that has more to do with matchups against a depleted Giants roster and the debut of Jordan Love than any scheme or personnel changes made on Kansas City's side. I'm going to hold out with the hopes of getting a field goal or more to back the Cowboys here.

Steelers @ Chargers (-3.5)

A Sunday night faux-home game for the Steelers. SoFi Stadium will be littered with Terrible Towels, as one of the league's most popular franchises visits one of the league's smallest and most die-easy fan bases in professional sports. If the Steelers dominate the Lions as they should in Week 10, this could close at or below three come kick-off time.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.