Week 10 NFL Betting Picks: Against the Spread

Nov 13, 2020

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Week 9 Recap: We’re back over .500 again in this space, cashing tickets on two of my three plays last Sunday. The Ravens (-1.5 at Colts) looked shaky thanks to Indy’s defense holding Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s offense in check, but the Blackbirds eventually pulled away in a 24-10 victory. My sentiment that the wrong team was favored in Washington was correct, as the Giants hung on for an outright victory over their NFC East rivals as a 2.5-point underdog, but my other divisional dog—the Lions—couldn’t contain Dalvin Cook as the Vikings easily covered as a 4-point home fave.

The 2-1 week elevates my season ATS record at 4for4.com to 13-12-2 (52%), which is not profitable. That said, with the second half of the season kicking off this week, I feel good about building off the momentum we’ve created over the past five weeks, as we’re 9-5 ATS (64%) over that span.

267 Buffalo Bills at 268 Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Cardinals -2.5
O/U: 56.5
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 15

Perhaps I’m falling into a dreaded trap, backing a Buffalo team off a huge win over Seattle and fading an Arizona squad that faltered late in a home loss to Miami, but I like the Bills regardless.

Let’s simplify this matchup. Buffalo is coming off a game in which its defense overwhelmed a mobile quarterback by constantly pressuring him into making repeated mistakes, including four turnovers. And who will the Bills face on Sunday? Kyler Murray—the dynamic, highly entertaining mobile signal-caller who is off to an outstanding start to his career but who still has a long way to go to get on the same level as Russell Wilson, whom the Bills just made look like Nathan Peterman last week. (Okay, that’s not fair, but you get my point.)

On the other side is Josh Allen, who played like an MVP in September, Nathan Peterman in October (again, not fair, but apparently my mind is all about the hyperbole in this writeup), and perhaps an MVP again now in November. He’ll face an Arizona defense that repeatedly conceded yards, points and first downs to a Dolphins offense that isn’t on the same level as the Bills this season. I see another big day coming from the fast-paced Bills this weekend.

Perhaps I’m overvaluing last week’s results, but I nevertheless see a ton of value in a Buffalo team coming off a huge win and knows Miami is nipping on its heels in the AFC East. The Cardinals have also been bad in the favorite role, losing six of their last eight games at the betting window and posting a 1-5 ATS record in their last six games as home chalk.

NFL Week 10 ATS Pick: Buffalo Bills +2.5