Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 16 Targets
There's not much else to say at this point.
It's championship week of the fantasy playoffs. It's what we've played for throughout the season. All of the injuries, spike weeks, disastrous performances, and tough losses have all been for this week. If you've adhered to the process so far, congratulations. We identified at least one play in Week 15 and emphasized planning ahead by sacrificing roster space to make room. Regardless, we're here and it's time to get into the news and notes one last time to see who we can stream in order to bring home a championship.
Week 15 Review
Our streak of finding a QB1 continues into the playoffs. Here’s how the scores ended up with key takeaways below:
- Ryan Tannehill – 24.16 points (QB4)
- Mitchell Trubisky – 16.26 points (QB18)
- Derek Carr – 15.88 points (QB19)
- Eli Manning – 13.32 points (QB22)
Tannehill’s day started off slow with multiple stalled drives and a pick in the end zone. The Titans picked it up in the third quarter with a rushing touchdown from Tannehill. Plus, the Texans’ offense provided the negative game script to keep Tannehill throwing for the remainder of the game. There’s some concern with Derrick Henry’s health headed into Week 16, but Tannehill still provided fantasy managers with a QB1 performance when they needed it most.
Eli Manning’s interceptions ruined what would have been a QB1 day, but he lost six points on three interceptions against the Dolphins. The floor (hopefully) didn’t torpedo fantasy manager’s playoff hopes, but the process was sound in starting Manning. Carr and Trubisky had similar average days but Carr would have liked to have had had a do-over once Week 15 concluded. Regardless, we’ll take the points and the offensive output as we move into the final games of the fantasy season.
Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed
As always, let’s turn to 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks updated through Week 15. Even as the NFL playoff picture comes into focus, notable injuries and lapses on defensive series have changed our view for some teams. Notable rankings for defensive units include:
- PHI down 12 spots to #17 (16.9 aFPA)
- DEN down 6 spots to #14 (16.0 aFPA)
- DAL down 5 spots to #24 (19.6 aFPA)
- ATL up 6 spots to #18 (16.9 aFPA)
- CAR up 6 spots to #4 (13.6 aFPA)
- SEA up 8 spots to #9 (14.8 aFPA)
Philadelphia's defensive secondary allowed Dwayne Haskins to post season-high numbers and nearly cost them the game if not for Carson Wentz and yet another comeback victory for the Eagles. They remain a streaming target but are facing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys taking them out of consideration for Week 16. Denver faced Patrick Mahomes in the snow which actually helped Kansas City as Mahomes posted his best outing in nearly a month and dropped our expectations of Denver moving forward. However, against Detroit in Week 16, their defense may be a waiver wire target for those still alive in the playoffs.
Seattle took advantage of Kyle Allen's poor play, ultimately setting the NFL community up for the premiere of Will Grier. Carolina's move to shake up the offense has the fantasy community concerned for the prospects of Christina McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, but it's hard to envision a worse scenario than the multiple turnovers caused by the backup. Atlanta continues to play spoiler to multiple teams after serving up losses to both San Francisco and Carolina (when they were still in the playoff picture). It's surprising how hard the team has continued to play, despite their record, giving hope to using Atlanta's fantasy assets in the fantasy finals.
Key Defensive Injuries
Finally, we’ll review injuries along with the guidelines that will be used each week to find viable options on the waiver wire:
- Ownership levels in the playoffs have been relaxed to 60%. Anyone with a positive matchup now becomes viable.
- Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
- Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
- 4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.
Alex Okafor (Chiefs, Chest) – The Chiefs’ defensive end was found to have a torn pectoral muscle during their Week 15 contest. Kansas City’s corresponding move was to claim Terrell Suggs after he was released by the Cardinals. It keeps the Chiefs’ defense (16.1 aFPA) as a solid unit with their offense forcing the opposition to test their defensive front and secondary.
Takk McKinley (Falcons, Shoulder) – McKinley is one of many defensive players to miss time for Atlanta throughout the season. The Falcons’ starting pass rusher left Week 15 in the first quarter and was ruled out. Dan Quinn announced on Monday that the injury will keep McKinley out for the final two games of the season limiting their defense (16.9 aFPA) further as Atlanta hosts the Jaguars in Week 16.
Other Notable Injuries: Jordan Whitehead (Buccaneers, Hamstring), Bobby Wagner (Seahawks, Ankle), Quandre Diggs (Seahawks, Ankle), Mike Daniels (Lions, Arm), Devon Kennard (Lions, Hamstring), Jimmy Moreland (Washington, Foot), Raekwon McMillan (Dolphins, Hamstring), Jonathan Jones (Patriots, Groin), Josh Allen (Jaguars, Shoulder)
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