Sneaky Starts: Week 13

Nov 27, 2019
Sneaky Starts: Week 13

All but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough—a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is dedicated to that part of fantasy football. It's not pretty, but it's part of the game.

A good way to identify a potential spot start is to leverage 4for4’s signature strength-of-schedule metric, adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA). Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. So if a defense has seen a murderer’s row of running backs, it will be reflected in the defense’s aFPA. As a ranker, I use this metric weekly when putting together our award-winning projections.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, my work week is compressed, so this edition of Sneaky Starts will be shorter than usual. Instead of a paragraph blurb about each player, I’ll present the players in a bullet point format for brevity.

Let’s take a look at the top Sneaky Starts for Week 13...


  • Sam Darnold, Jets (@ CIN, 27) - Darnold has at least 21.7 fantasy points in three straight games and a tasty matchup with the Bengals on tap.

  • Nick Foles, Jaguars (vs. TB, 31) - In two starts since his return, Foles has thrown for 296/2 against the Colts and 272/0 against the Titans. He should post good numbers against the pass-funnel Bucs.

  • Ryan Tannehill, Titans (@ IND, 13) - Tannehill has at least 18.9 fantasy points in five straight starts including 32.4 last week against the Jaguars. The Colts have yielded 298/2 to Deshaun Watson and 296/2 to Nick Foles in the last two games.

  • Jared Goff, Rams (@ ARI, 32) - Goff has been terrible of late, but a bounceback game is possible against the 32nd-ranked Cardinals who have yielded at least 18.3 fantasy points in the last three games, with a 25.6-point average.

Running Backs

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