Sunday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Bears at Rams

Nov 16, 2019

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Two teams looking to stay alive in the 2019 NFL playoff hunt will take the field Sunday Night with the 4-5 Chicago Bears visiting the 5-4 Los Angeles Rams in what Vegas expects to be a low-scoring affair. The teams have the potential to top the 40 point Vegas total, so we'll look at how that could possibly happen to help you find the winning edge in your single-game slate lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Injuries

David Montgomery, CHI, RB - Questionable
Adam Shaheen, CHI, TE - OUT
Trey Burton, CHI, TE - OUT
Tyler Higbee, LAR, TE - Questionable
Gerald Everett, LAR, TE - Questionable
Brandin Cooks, LAR, WR - OUT

There are two pieces of big news here, with the first being Brandin Cooks being out—it opens up some moderate value via Josh Reynolds. David Montgomery is the other piece of big news as he is a true game-time decision according to Matt Nagy. We're projecting him to play, but if he were to sit it's a massive boost for Tarik Cohen (who is already a good value) and makes Ryan Nall a viable option at minimum price (well $300 on DraftKings but close enough). Additionally, the two Bears TEs being out also puts Ben Braunecker into play as a value option.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Rams -6 Over/Under 40

There is some potential for this game to hit the high 40's, but let's be real. We have a bad offense (in the Bears which will be even worse if David Montgomery can't play), facing a good defense in the Rams and then a top-notch defense in the Bears facing an underwhelming QB in Jared Goff. Chances are, Vegas has this right. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.