3 Overvalued Tight Ends

Aug 08, 2018

The tight end position is a thin one, but can be a difference maker in your season if you approach it correctly. After the first tier of players, which consists of Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz, strategy comes into the mix when deciding not only who to draft, but when the right time is to pull the trigger.

At 4for4 we’ve covered the position extensively so far this offseason, including strength of schedule and late-round streaming pairings and differing strategies. In this article, I break down some potential bust candidates—guys who may be overvalued based on their average draft position (ADP) thus far this drafting season.

More Overvalued Players: RB | WR | QB

Sleepers, Values, and Targets: RB | WR | QB | TE

I’ll be looking at stats identified by TJ Hernandez as the most predictable from year to year for tight ends, highlighting who I think could underperform in 2018, in conjunction with 4for4’s multi-site ADP tool.

Without further ado, here are my choices for tight ends who you may want to think twice about before clicking that draft button, or walking that sticker up to the draft board—at least at their current ADP.

Greg Olsen, Panthers

The picture of consistency for nine straight NFL seasons, Olsen played just seven contests in 2017 due to a broken foot. When on the field last season, the 33-year old ranked 14th among TEs in average targets per game with just 5.3, a stat with the fifth-strongest correlation from year to year. In PPR fantasy points per game, the statistic determined as the highest in relativity, Olsen posted just 6.0 per matchup, finishing 28th at his position in 2017. His current ADP is TE4, coming off draft boards in the fifth round.

In an offense with an uber-talented pass-catching RB in his second season, one who led the Panthers in targets as a rookie, plus the addition of C.J. Anderson, who can also catch the football, expect Olsen’s overall looks to take a dip. Carolina also added first-round WR D.J. Moore, as well as free agents Torrey Smith and Jarius Wright, in an attempt to provide more weapons for QB Cam Newton.

Olsen should be fine this season. I’m not saying to fade him completely, but I have a tough time spending a fifth-round pick on a player who’s projected to score 153 PPR points when Jack Doyle and his projected 151 PPR points is available in the ninth round.

David Njoku, Browns

Continue reading to see why Jen believes David Njoku is being overdrafted at his current ADP, and to see which other tight end made her overvalued list for the 2018 fantasy season...