DraftKings Week 14 Slate Breakdown with Cash and GPP Picks
A main slate that features no games with an over/under of 50 and only three of at least 451 may seem like an ugly slate—but it's really one ripe with opportunity. Nearly half of all NFL games go over their Vegas total, and when they do, it's by an average of roughly 10 points. In other words, a slate of low-totaled games does not necessarily mean a slate of low-scoring games.
Building around a core at RB of Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, and Giovani Bernard, who are the top three players on the slate in terms of cash odds, should leave you with $5,500–$6,800 to spend on a QB, depending on what you do at other positions. The top cash game plays in that range are Jameis Winston ($5,900) and Alex Smith ($6,500). Winston averages 20.0 DraftKings points per game if you exclude the two games he did not finish due to injury, and he will face a Lions defense ranked 28th in QB aFPA and that has given up 29.8 points per game from its fifth game on, the second-highest allowance in the league over that span. Russell Wilson has a tough matchup with the Jaguars, but Smith has been doing his own Wilson impression since Week 4, accounting for 82.8% of Kansas City’s total yards on offense and all 17 of its TDs. That, combined with a matchup against a hapless Raiders defense that has only picked off one pass in 398 pass attempts while allowing 20 TDs, is enough to give Smith a substantial floor and the highest cash odds of all QBs on the slate despite the inconsistent nature of the Chiefs offense.
That putrid defense works in favor of Derek Carr ($6,400) as well, increasing the likelihood of a shootout. So too does the suspension of Kansas City's top cornerback and the league's best flag thrower, Marcus Peters, which weakens a defense already allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) per game in the league to opposing QBs (21.3).
The Most Accurate Projections Since 2010