DraftDay Wild Card Values & Top Plays
When playing on a short slate in cash games, i wouldn't get too fancy. I'd play all the top studs and fill out my lineup with the best value I can. It makes no sense to fade a stud like Antonio Brown if there is no way to use your savings to make up the points you're losing by not rostering Brown.
In tournaments, since there will be limited options and a lot of overlap, pretty much every player is in play. Refer to the DraftDay Value Reports to see which players you want to have the most exposure to.
One player I think is a poor cash game play but a great tournament play is Cam Newton ($13,950). Arizona-Carolina has this week's lowest Vegas over/under and Cam's floor is low because he's not a great passer and relies on rushing stats. That being said, his ceiling is sky high against a Cardinals defense that plays a lot of man coverage and is vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. Colin Kapernick put up 53 and 64 rushing yards on them, and Russell Wilson notched 73 and 88 rushing yards in his two meetings with Arizona. Most people will probably own the least of this game because it has the lowest Vegas total.
Another overlooked player may be Jonathan Stewart ($9,100). Arizona's run defense is known to be vaunted, but they've shown cracks lately. Over the last five weeks, they've given up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs and allowed 5.29 yards per carry over that span. The yards per carry average is inflated by a handful of long runs, but in a tournament, that's exactly what we're looking for.
If LeVeon Bell sits out, another player who many may hesitate to use is Dri Archer ($4,000). While Josh Harris may end up getting more touches, Archer is the more explosive player, having run a 4.26 40-yard dash at the combine. Archer is also a solid pass catcher and if he's involved in the passing game he could easily pay off his minimum price tag. If Bell does play, rostering him may present value, as his ownership may be lower than it should be.
Editor's Note: You can get a free year of 4for4 by opening a new account and depositing at DraftKings, DraftDay or FanDuel. Details here.
QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. BAL $14,800
Baltimore’s makeshift secondary comprised of three undrafted free agent starters has held up the last three weeks to the tune of 191 passing yards and no TDs allowed to the likes of Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Connor Shaw. The odds aren’t in their favor to hold Ben Roethlisberger in check this weekend. Likely minus Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers’ offensive strength will meet Baltimore’s defensive weakness.
Big Ben has thrown for 310 yards per game and the Ravens have given up 270 yards per game, and are ranked 24th in QB aFPA. Since 2012, Roethlisberger has tossed 37 percent more touchdowns at home than he has on the road.
QB Tony Romo vs. DET $13,900
Romo has averaged 2.26 passing touchdowns per game this season, and 74 percent of offensive touchdowns scored against the Lions have come via the forward pass. Detroit is playing historically elite run defense but is ranked 13th in QB aFPA. After starting the first month of the season on fire, the Lions have permitted five 300-yard passing games and eight multi-touchdown games over their last twelve contests.
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