Fanduel Week 10 Values & Top Plays
Have you ever decided to use your Netflix subscription but then spent an episode’s worth of time just scrolling through possible options because there’s nothing you really want to watch? Because that’s tight end for me this week. It’s like that time when you “called dibs on the cute friend”...except there was no cute friend. Or to put it in football terms, it’s like being the New York Jets defensive backs coach: there’s simply no one you want to play.
OK, it’s not as bad as having anything to do with the Jets or their defensive backs. Martellus Bennett makes for a decent play based on the game’s over/under and his TD potential, and Julius Thomas is blurbed below. But only two of the top 10 TEs on our FanDuel Value Reports have green (favorable) strength-of-schedule matchups: one is a red zone target on a team that may not even get to the red zone (Larry Donnell), and one received zero targets last week (Jace Amaro). The normally reliable Jimmy Graham is facing the 49ers, who are number one in TE aFPA, and even though he projects as a decent value numbers-wise, I think he's very boom-or-bust this week. I’d have trouble making a case for anyone besides Thomas, Bennett, and Owen Daniels (9 targets and 6 receptions in each of his last two games plus tied for team lead in red zone targets this season) in cash games.
My big picture advice this week would be to stay flexible at QB. I do think Aaron Rodgers ($9,900) will light it up and I like the price of his WRs, but there is a lot of good value at QB in every pricing tier. Therefore, this is a week when I’d create a core of RBs and WRs (where many of the best values are on the expensive side), and then fill in my QB and TE around them.
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Values & Top Plays
QB Ben Roethlisberger @ NYJ $8,300
The Jets are safest team to target QBs against because they have one of the league’s best run defenses, but are abysmal at defending the pass, causing opposing offenses to relentlessly attack their nameless defensive backs even when said offense has grabbed an inevitable lead. Big Ben is throwing the ball about as well as he ever has in his career, and the Jets rank 31st in QB aFPA, allowing 275 passing yards per game and a 24:1 TD:Interception ratio.
QB Joe Flacco vs. TEN $7,200
| Comp % | Pass YDs/G | Pass TD/G | Int/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 62.1 | 268 | 1.7 | 0.80 |
| Road | 58.1 | 226 | 1.1 | 1.14 |
We have a large sample size indicating Flacco performs significantly better at home. After a strong start to the season, the wheels have started to fall off the Titans pass defense: over their last five contests, they’re allowing 303 passing yards and 2 passing TDs per game. Flacco has four 300-yard games and five multi-TD games on the year; he’s a nice combination of safe value and upside.
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