Utilizing the Draft Planner: Drafting from the #10-#12 spots
John Paulsen, Contributing Editor
Note: All percentages are for last two weeks as of time of publishing. The ADP Draft Planner is constantly being updated as real drafts complete on myfantasyleague.com.
This is the second of a four-part series that is intended to help fantasy owners develop a draft plan based on their position in the first round. To see part one (for those owners picking from the #1-#3 spots), click here.
In this part, we'll deal with the #10-#12 spots. Using the ADP Draft Planner and Value Based Rankings (VBR), I'll go round-by-round (through the 8th round) and mention a few players at each pick that fantasy owners should be targeting.
Keep in mind that these picks are for standard scoring formats (with 4 pt per pass TD), but when appropriate I will mention players that should be considered in PPR formats as well. I'm going to assume a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE (along with a kicker and defense). If your league allows you to start three RBs, you'll want to focus a little more on the RB position as the draft wears on. Conversely, if your league only requires one starting RB, you can focus more on the other positions.
Off we go...
1.10-1.12
Drafting this late in the 1st, owners have to prepare for a few different scenarios. In standard formats, Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick enter the conversation, and if you're comfortable going QB this early, they are reasonable picks in this range. We recommend Rashard Mendenhall if he's available, and he has about a 62% chance of being there at 2.12.
If Mendy is not there, the next best RB option is Darren McFadden, who has the talent to crack the top 5 if he stays healthy. There is risk there, so owners may elect to go with a WR (Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson or Roddy White) or a QB instead. Let's look at three different first round scenarios:
Team #1: Mendenhall
Team #2: C. Johnson
Team #3: Vick
PPR: VBR says to look WR/WR here (assuming the top 6 RBs are gone), so we'll plan on going WR/RB with our first two picks since I just don't feel comfortable sending fantasy owners into the 3/4 turn without a RB on the roster (due to the relative lack of depth in the early rounds at RB). Whether you go RB or WR first is up to you. Do you see much of a difference amongst the #2-#5 WRs (Calvin, Roddy, Nicks, Fitzy)? If not, grab your favorite RB in the 1st and look to grab one of those four in the 2nd.
Team #4 (PPR): DMC
2.01-2.03
Team #1: Mendenhall - You could go RB, WR or QB here. Let's assume you go RB. There's a 91% chance that one of McFadden, Frank Gore or LeSean McCoy make it to 2.03.
Team #2: Calvin - Let's try going WR here to see what's available at the 3/4 turn at RB. Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks or Larry Fitzgerald is available 97% of the time.
Team #3: Vick - We'll go with a RB here (Darren McFadden, Frank Gore or LeSean McCoy).
Team #4 (PPR): After McFadden in the 1st, you're looking WR in the 2nd. There's an 81% chance that Calvin, Roddy, Nicks or Fitzgerald will be there at 2.03.
3.10-3.12
Team #1: RB/RB - With two RBs on the roster, it's time to look for some WRs. But other than Vincent Jackson (who is not likely to be available at 3.12), Antonio Gates represents the most value. He's available 69% of the time.
Team #2: WR/WR - Time to look for a RB. Ahmad Bradshaw, LeGarrette Blount and Jahvid Best stand out, and one is available 91% of the time at 3.12.
Team #3: QB/RB - With Vick and Gore here, you can go RB or WR, or even TE. Assuming V-Jax and Bradshaw are gone, the next highest value is Gates.
Team #4 (PPR): RB/WR - With DMC and Nicks on the roster, RB is an option, but Bradshaw/Best are only available at 3.12 52% of the time. So let's plan on Felix Jones in the 4th. That means we're looking for V-Jax, Mike Williams or Dez Bryant in the 3rd. One is available 88% of the time.
4.01-4.03
Team #1: RB/RB/TE - Need to look WR here and there are several good ones available. Assuming V-Jax is gone, one of DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin, Mike Williams or Dez Bryant should be available 87% of the time. (We like Steve Johnson as much as Bryant, but he may be available at the end of the 5th.)
Team #2: WR/WR/RB - It would be wise to get a good RB2 here, and one of LeGarrette Blount, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jahvid Best, Shonn Greene or Felix Jones should be available here (97%).
Team #3: QB/RB/TE - You've ignored the WR position, but you still need your second RB. What do do? It may be tough to pass up some of the WR talent here, but Blount, Bradshaw, Best, Greene or Felix would look good on this roster.
Team #4 (PPR): RB/WR/WR - We were planning on Felix here, but Bradshaw and Best are possibilities as well. One is available 90% of the time.
5.10-5.12
Team #1: RB/RB/TE/WR - One reason we like to wait a bit on WRs is the relative depth. There are often good ones available on the 5th/6th turn. We recommend Steve Johnson, Mario Manningham, Santonio Holmes, Brandon Lloyd and Jeremy Maclin (97%).
Team #2: WR/WR/RB/RB - In a three WR league, the aforementioned group of wideouts hold more value than TEs like Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley or Dallas Clark, though you could grab Witten here (if available) and plan on a WR in the 6th. We'll assume a WR here from the Johnson/Manningham/Holmes/Lloyd/Maclin group.
Team #3: QB/RB/TE/RB - You have to look WR here, and while none of these guys are great WR1s, they're good enough when you have started Vick/Gore/Gates/Felix.
Team #4 (PPR): RB/WR/WR/RB - Witten, Finley and Clark represent good value in the 5th, but it's doubtful that they'll be available (22%). So look to take one of those WRs.
6.01-6.03
Team #1: RB/RB/TE/WR/WR - You could look QB here or possibly take a QB or a RB3. At QB, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan or Ben Roethlisberger should be there 71% of the time.
Add Josh Freeman to that list, and the chances jump to 85%.
I like Freeman about as much as those other guys, so one strategy would be to go WR here (Holmes, Manningham, Lloyd, Maclin or Percy Harvin - 96% - or even Chad Ochococinco) and hope that Freeman slips to 7.10-7.12.
The #10-#12 QBs often slip a bit further than expected because so many owners already have QBs and are looking to fill other positions. But let's assume a QB in the 6th.
Team #2: WR/WR/RB/RB/WR - The Romo, Ryan, Roethlisberger and Freeman group look good here (85%), though if Witten/Clark/Finley slip (31%), give them serious consideration.
Team #3: QB/RB/TE/RB/WR - You should be looking WR here since you start three.
Team #4 (PPR): RB/WR/WR/RB/WR - This is a good spot for Witten/Clark/Finley, if available, but they'll likely be gone, so you should look QB or RB3. Which way you go depends on your QB philosophy. Josh Freeman/Matt Schaub may be gone at 7.10 -- are you okay with Stafford/Eli/Cutler? If not, let's say you grab one of the aforementioned QBs here and plan to take a RB3 in the 7th.
7.10-7.12 / 8.01-8.03
Team #1: RB/RB/TE/WR/WR/QB - Plan to grab a RB3 and WR3 on this turn. Some RBs you should be targeting: Mike Tolbert, Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson and Joseph Addai (93%). Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells are also good options. WRs: Mike Thomas, Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon and Julio Jones (99%).
Team #2: WR/WR/RB/RB/WR/QB
You'll probably want to look for a TE and a RB3 on this turn. There is good depth at TE, and there's a 100% chance one of Jimmy Graham, Owen Daniels, Rob Gronkowski, Marcedes Lewis or Kellen Winslow will be available at 8.03, so you may want to look RB3 at 7.10-7.12.
Team #3: QB/RB/TE/RB/WR/WR
Like Team #1, you'll want to target a WR3 and a RB3 on this turn.
Team #4 (PPR): RB/WR/WR/RB/WR/QB
Like Team #2, you should target a TE and a RB3 on this turn, though you could also build some more depth at WR if you think Tolbert/Hightower might slip to the 9/10 turn (not likely, but possible). One of the aforementioned five TEs are available 99% of the time at 7.12.
SUMMARY
Let's take a look at a reasonable representation of each team:
Team #1: Mendenhall, Gore, Gates, D. Bryant, Manningham, Big Ben, S. Moss, Tolbert
Team #2: Calvin, Fitzgerald, Best, Felix, Manningham, Freeman, Daniels, Tolbert
Team #3: Vick, Gore, Gates, Felix, S. Johnson, Manningham, Hightower, M. Thomas
Team #4 (PPR): DMC, Nicks, M. Williams, Felix, Manningham, Big Ben, Tolbert, Gronkowski
Notice that the only team where we took a QB early (Team #2) turned out pretty well, though the margin for error in the early 4th round at RB is less than it is at WR. If you miss out on Blount/Felix/Best/Bradshaw, you may be stuck with RB3 types posing as your RB2.
Manningham is one of our favorite value WR picks in the 5th/6th rounds, but his stock is rising so be prepared to strike in the 5th. He's still a very good value there. Meanwhile, we believe that Tolbert and Hightower represent solid value in the 7th/8th as low-cost RB3s.
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