Week 5 at Chicago Bears
Once again Mike Evans failed to reach Bruce Arians' 10 target goal, but it didn't really matter. Evans finished 7-122-1 on eight targets as his strong season has continued. He's had a pair of 100-yard games and a pair of 2-yard games, but he has scored every single week this season. With Chris Godwin expected to miss another game, Evans should see plenty of targets once again. He faces a Bears defense that has surprisingly not allowed a receiving touchdown to a wide receiver all season, the only team to do so. Even if Evans' touchdown streak comes to an end, he still should have a strong game. We like him as a lower-end WR1 play in Week 5.
Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
After Week 1, coach Bruce Arians said, "I never want to come out of a game without 10 targets to Mike [Evans], at least." Well, just two weeks later and he's already done that. Evans saw just four targets in Week 3, finishing with two receptions for two yards. Fortunately for fantasy owners, those two receptions were touchdowns. It's been an odd season for Evans as two of his games have a combined three receptions for four yards and three touchdowns. We expect Evans to have a strong game this week as Chris Godwin is expected to be sidelined. Even in a tough matchup, Evans should get enough targets to make him a WR1 play this week.
Week 3 at Denver Broncos
After Week 1's one-catch game from Mike Evans, Bruce Arians said he wanted to see his wideout get at least 10 targets a game. Well he hit that threshold in Week 2, and came away with a strong 7-104-1 performance. We'll see if Evans will hit 10 targets again now that Chris Godwin returns to the lineup in Week 3, but even if he doesn't, Evans should be productive. He faces a middle-of-the-road defense in the Broncos, and we like Evans as a low-end WR1, or high-end WR2 play this week. Start him with confidence.
Week 2 vs. Carolina Panthers
UPDATE: Evans got in a full practice Friday and is not listed with an injury designation for Week 2. With Godwin officially ruled out, we like Evans as a low-end WR1 play this week.
Mike Evans has been limited in practice this week with a hamstring injury, but since he was able to play in Week 1 we'd assume he'd be fine to play this week. Evans struggled against the Saints as he finished with just one reception for two yards on four targets. Luckily for fantasy owners that one catch was a touchdown, so it wasn't a total dud performance. After the game, coach Bruce Arians said, "I never want to come out of a game without 10 targets to Mike, at least." We'll see if that pace is possible. It certainly seems possible in Week 2 as Chris Godwin has missed practice this week with a concussion. If he's unable to play, Evans should get double-digit targets easily.
Week 1 at New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans could get off to a rough start in 2020 as he's dealing with a hamstring injury heading into Week 1's matchup against the Saints. Even if he's able to play, he'll likely be facing New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattimore who held Evans to 0 receptions in the Bucs' first game against the Saints in 2019. Pair the matchup with Evans' injury and there's some reason for concern. Still, if Evans is listed as active it'd be incredibly tough to sit him. He did play well against the Saints in his second game (4-69), and his ceiling is as a WR1. We like Evans more as a WR2 play this week considering his injury.
Update: Evans was upgraded from Doubtful to Questionable on Sunday, and reports indicate he's going to play. However, he may be on a snap count, making him a riskier play. He's been downgraded more to WR3 territory in our rankings.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Evans has played six years in the NFL and has produced six 1,000-yard seasons. He finished as the No. 3 wide receiver (half-PPR) in average fantasy points per game last year, trailing only Michael Thomas and his teammate Chris Godwin. Evans was also fairly consistent in 2019 finishing with 50+ yards in all but two games (and he was sick in one of those games). And despite logic having you believe Tom Brady’s arm can’t throw deep anymore, NFL.com’s Next-Gen stats had Brady as the fourth-best deep passer in 2019. Evans shines as a deep threat as his 17.3 ypc was fourth-highest among receivers with 50+ receptions.
Fantasy Downside
Evans has had some durability issues, only playing in two full seasons throughout his career. While he hasn’t ended up missing too many games, sometimes he plays hurt and struggles, which is almost worse than a straight inactive. Evans also has an issue with drops/catches. He ranked 169th out of eligible pass catchers (per Pro Football Reference) with a 56.8% catch percentage. If he maintains that catch percentage while seeing fewer targets, it’ll be an issue.
2020 Bottom Line
It’s hard to go wrong with Evans. He’s produced in six straight seasons, making him a fairly safe option moving forward. He turns 27 before the season starts, which is still when we see receivers in their peak. We project slightly fewer per-game averages from Evans in 2020, but nothing drastic. He’s still in WR1 territory, and we expect him to finish with his seventh 1,000-yard season.
Week 14 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Mike Evans saw a team-high 11 targets last week, but only finished 4-53. Oddly enough, he's finished with four receptions in four straight games now despite seeing 33 targets in that span. He's also gone scoreless in those four games. He has a chance to bounce back this week, however, as he gets a great matchup against the Colts. Indy has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards, and the third-most receiving touchdowns to wideouts over the past four weeks. We like Evans as a must-start WR1 in Week 14.
Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Evans took a backseat to Chris Godwin last week as he finished 4-50 on eight targets. Evans has cooled off a bit lately, finishing with just four receptions in three straight games with no touchdowns. But even though he hasn't been as dominant, he hasn't been bad. And his upside continues to make him a must-start WR1 on any given week. He gets a decent matchup against the Jaguars this week, and he should be in your starting lineup.
Week 12 at Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans oddly took a backseat to both Cameron Brate and Scotty Miller last week as he finished third on the team in receiving yards. He still had a nice outing, finishing 4-69 on eight targets. Outside of Week 1 when he was sick, and a random zero in Week 5, Evans has topped 60 receiving yards in every game. He's also had three games of at least 180 yards. Long story short: he's really good, and gets a great matchup against the Falcons who are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers. Trust Evans as a must-start WR1 in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans played well last week, finishing 4-82. He surprisingly only had six targets despite Jameis Winston throwing the ball 48 times. This week he faces what could be a tough matchup against the Saints. Earlier this season, Evans dropped a goose egg in his game against New Orleans. We wouldn't expect that to happen again, however. Evans has been too good since that game to have a huge letdown performance. Start the player who has averaged 139 yards over the last four games. He's an easy WR1 option in Week 11.
