Week 10 vs. Arizona Cardinals
It seems like either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin has a huge game each week, and lately, it's been Evans. He finished 12-180-1 last week after finishing 11-198-2 the week before. He should have another breakout game this week as he draws a very favorable matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona is allowing the fourth-most receiving yards in the league and Tampa Bay is allowing the most. This could easily turn into a shootout, leading to many targets for Evans. He should be viewed as a must-start WR1 against Arizona.
Week 9 at Seattle Seahawks
Mike Evans' season has been frustrating at times, but he's been mostly good in 2019. He had a great outing last week, exploding for 11-198-2 on 12 targets. It seems like most weeks either Evans or Godwin has a blowup game, with only one week where they both truly shined. Either way, the potential for a huge game is always there for Evans, which makes him a strong option most weeks. That doesn't change in Week 9 as Evans draws a decent matchup against the Seahawks. He should be viewed as a strong WR1.
Week 8 at Tennessee Titans
Mike Evans bounced back with a big game the last time Tampa Bay played as he was targeted 17 times. He finished catching nine passes for 96 yards as his rocky 2019 season continues. He gets a tough matchup this week against a Titans defense that's allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to receivers. There's reason for a little concern with Evans, but he should still be viewed as someone with a high ceiling. Start him as a WR1 this week against Tennessee.
Week 6 vs. Carolina Panthers
Mike Evans dropped a big fat goose egg last week and now has three letdown games on the season. He had one big game, which has accounted for 57% of his total fantasy points through five games in 2019. He faces a Panthers team this week he played OK against in Week 2, where he finished 4-61. Evans can't be viewed as the WR1 you likely drafted him as, but he should be able to produce WR2 numbers while having WR1 upside on certain weeks.
Week 5 at New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans took a backseat to Chris Godwin in Week 4, but still delivered a solid performance. He finished 4-89-1 on seven targets. He's now had 60+ receiving yards in three straight games while catching four touchdowns in that span. Look for him to continue to produce in a favorable matchup against the Saints, who are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers. We like Evans as a lower-end WR1 option in Week 5.
Week 4 at Los Angeles Rams
Mike Evans rose from the dead last week and caught up on all the fantasy points he missed out on in the first two games. Evans finished 8-190-3 on 15 targets as he carved the Giants' defense up. But fantasy owners should temper expectations this week. Evans faces a tough Rams defense, which is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers. L.A. hasn't allowed a receiving touchdown to a wideout all season. Evans is still a low-end WR1 option because he will get a lot of looks (averaging 9 targets per game) but don't be surprised if he struggles a bit.
Week 3 vs. New York Giants
Mike Evans isn't off to a great start this season, but it shouldn't be time to panic. He has 14.9 PPR points through two weeks. In 2018 he had a two-game stretch where he had 10.7 PPR points, and he still finished with 1,500+ yards. He still has time to turn things around, which he should be able to do this week against a bad Giants defense. New York is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts in 2019. We like Evans as a WR1 option in Week 3.
Week 2 at Carolina Panthers
Mike Evans was active last week despite having an illness, but fantasy owners probably wish he was inactive. Evans was a huge letdown, finishing 2-28 on five targets. For now, we'll just toss it up as a bad game. He had the illness excuse, and the Bucs' offense struggled as a whole to move (and keep) the ball.
He'll face a Panthers defense Thursday night, which he struggled against a year ago. Evans went 1-16 in his first game and 4-48 in his second game. He should be viewed as a low-end WR1 option with a high ceiling this week.
Week 1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Mike Evans put up his fifth-straight 1,000-yard season in 2018, and did so with a career-high 1,524 yards. The Bucs lost Adam Humphries and DeSean Jackson in the offseason, which could free up some extra targets for Evans. Although one could also argue more focus will be placed on Evans now that they're gone. Either way, though, Evans will find a way to be successful, just like he has for all five of his professional seasons.
He opens up the year in a favorable matchup against the 49ers, who allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts a year ago. Expect Evans to produce at a high level, making him a WR1 play against San Francisco in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Evans set a new career-high in 2018 with 1,524 receiving yards. He finished as the No. 8 receiver in fantasy scoring as he survived Tampa Bay’s revolving door at quarterback. Evans was dominant, finishing half his games (8) with 100+ receiving yards. He also had 10 games with 6+ receptions. DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries are now gone, which should free up some targets for Evans this season. There’s no reason he can’t continue to produce another 1,000-yard season as he has in his first five years.
Fantasy Downside
Evans’ touchdown production has been shaky in his five years as a pro. He scored 12 in his first season, three in his second, 12 in his third, five in his fourth and eight in his fifth. His touchdowns could dip again as Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard emerge as bigger threats in 2019. Also, the Bucs had the fourth-fewest rushing yards in 2018. If Bruce Arians is able to get the running game going in Tampa, it will result in less overall production for the wideouts.
2019 Bottom Line
Evans should be viewed as a fairly safe WR1 in 2019. It will be difficult for him to maintain what he did last season by going over 1,500 yards, but he should still be able to top 1,000 yards. He’s a fairly safe low-end WR1 option who you can get later than most of the other top wideouts. Evans has produced every season since joining the NFL, and there’s no reason why he should see a major dropoff, especially in Arians’ offense.
