Week 7 vs. Cleveland Browns
Mike Evans has played well this season, but the Bucs have so many weapons that it makes it difficult for him to have those really big games. Five players had at least 50 receiving yards last week for Tampa Bay, with Evans being one of them. In fact, he's had at least 50 yards in every game this season. But he also had a season-low in receptions (4) and targets (5) last week.
Evans gets a decent matchup this week vs. the Browns where he should continue to put up 50+ receiving yards. He's a big body, so he's always a threat to score, which he has done three times this season. He's a lower-end WR1 choice vs. Cleveland.
Week 6 at Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans had his worst game of the season in Tampa Bay's last outing, finishing 6-59 (on nine targets). That's still a fairly productive day, which speaks to how good of a season Evans has had. It was also a difficult matchup, so we shouldn't be too surprised.
This week he gets a much better matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, including a league-high 10 touchdowns. Expect a big game out of Evans, and trust him as a strong WR1 option.
Week 4 at Chicago Bears
If there were any doubts about Mike Evans before the season, they're gone now. Evans is off to a hot start, scoring a touchdown in every game so far this season while averaging 122 yards per game. He's also been very efficient with his targets (23-of-30, 76% catch rate) which was a problem a season ago (71-of-135, 52% catch rate).
He gets a decent matchup this week against the Bears, who struggled to stop wideouts in Week 1 vs. the Packers. Chicago is a solid defense, but far from being a shutdown unit when it comes to receivers. We expect the Bucs to struggle running, which should lead to more passes. Evans should be viewed as a low-end WR1.
Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Once again Mike Evans had a great game with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He caught 10 passes for 83 yards and found the end zone for the second straight week. After he scored just five times a season ago, it's nice to see Evans consistently scoring this season.
We like him as a WR1 option this week against the Steelers, who have struggled so far this season to stop opposing wideouts. There's no reason to expect a major dropoff in production for Evans, so we like him as a WR1 option this week.
Week 2 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
There were some doubts about Mike Evans heading into the year based on last season's projections and the QB situation, but he certainly rewarded owners in the opening game. Evans converted all seven of his targets into seven catches for 147 yards and a touchdown against the Saints last week.
If Evans continues to get looks and capitalize on them, then we certainly like him again in Week 2 against the Eagles. We project him as a WR1 in both standard and PPR formats against Philadelphia.
Week 1 at New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans had a bit of a down season last year, but he still posted his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. He may not have produced as much as some expected, but he continues to be a top option in the Bucs' offense and should be in store for another big year in 2018.
In Week 1 he gets a tough matchup against the Saints and has Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB instead of Jameis Winston. Evans struggled last year vs. New Orleans, posting a one-catch game and a 55-yard game.
His talent makes him worthy of a borderline WR1 start, but it may be a down game for the star wideout.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Evans finished with another 1,000-yard season in 2017, his fourth consecutive since entering the league. He continues to be the top option in the Bucs’ offense in 2018. What does being the top option mean? It means averaging 9.1 targets per game, which he did just a season ago. Evans has proven to be a threat in the past with two 12-touchdown seasons, and he’s had at least 70 receptions in each of the last three seasons.
Fantasy Downside
While Evans did finish with 1,000 yards last year, it certainly didn’t feel like a good season. He had just five touchdowns, and only one of those scores came after Week 7. He only had one 100-yard performance in 2017, making the majority of his production just so-so.
Evans may be the No. 1 option in this offense, but he has some competition for targets in DeSean Jackson, upcoming wideout Chris Godwin and of course Tampa’s two talented tight ends. Oh yeah, and Tampa’s starting quarterback, Jameis Winston, is out for the first three games of the season, which ultimately damages Evans’ value.
2018 Bottom Line
Evans is one of the most talented WRs in the league right now, but he doesn’t always produce like it. If he can improve on his red zone and goal-line numbers (he caught 5-of-19 targets inside the 20 in 2017) then he’d really be a threat. But if his numbers end up being similar to last season, owners are going to feel bad for reaching for him at his current ADP. Evans is a good WR option, but he may be too pricey in most fantasy drafts this season.
Week 17 vs. New Orleans Saints
With no DeSean Jackson, Mike Evans led the way for Tampa Bay last week with 6 catches for 107 yards on a team-high 8 targets. This was Evans' first 100-yard game of the season as he appears to be back-on-track with two solid games.
Things could get difficult this week, however, as Evans has a date with the Saints' Marshon Lattimore. New Orleans kept Evans in check earlier in the season with just 1 catch for 13 yards. We expect him to bounce back this week, and he should be viewed as a WR1, but owners should realize there could be a strong chance of a bad game.
Week 16 at Carolina Panthers
Mike Evans finally scored a touchdown last week, his first end zone trip since Week 7. He also had 79 yards on 5 catches and he was targeted 8 times. Evans clearly hasn't lost the talent, but he's just not getting as many looks as he was last season. He's been held to under 100 yards in every game this season, which is rare for someone with Evans' talents.
He gets a favorable matchup this week against Carolina, although it is a team he struggled against in Week 8 when he finished with 60 yards on 5 catches. He could get a few more targets this week, however, if DeSean Jackson is unable to go on his ankle injury. Evans is still a little difficult to trust completely, but he should be a fine WR2 this week.
Week 15 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans continued his frustrating stretch of games last week, finishing with just 25 yards on 2 catches. The former obvious WR1 hasn't performed up to his capabilities lately, as he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7. He's also had just 2 catches in each of his last two games.
He'll look to bounce back this week against the Falcons, a team he caught 6 passes for 78 yards against just a few weeks ago. Evans' lack of use has been frustrating for owners, but he still has appeal as a low-end WR2.
