Week 8 at New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans had a monster game last week, finishing 6-76-3 on 10 targets. Evans has seen 10 or more targets in three games this season, and two of those have come when Antonio Brown was inactive. With Brown expected to be absent again in Week 8, we wouldn't be surprised if Evans sees 10+ targets again. Although Evans faces the Saints this week, a team he has historically struggled against. He's averaged just 33 yards in his last four matchups vs. New Orleans, catching nine total passes in that span. Evans is typically shadowed by Marshon Lattimore in games vs. the Saints, and the two have a history against one another Evans getting suspended for a blindside hit on the CB. Still, with the way Evans had produced so far this season, he should still be viewed as a strong WR2 in this matchup, especially since the Saints are 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Just know going in that there's a chance for a dud performance.
Week 7 vs. Chicago Bears
Mike Evans had one of his worst games last week, finishing 2-27, setting a season-low in receptions. It's also the second time this season Evans has finished below 30 receiving yards in a game. He also set a season-low in targets, seeing just four despite playing 70 out of 75 snaps. Despite the tough game, Evans is still the Bucs' leader in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns (tied). He should be viewed as a low-end WR1 this week in an OK matchup against the Bears who are 18th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to receivers. Evans should see a bump in targets this week following Antonio Brown being ruled out with an injury. In Brown's last absence (Week 3), Evans saw 10 targets and had a 100-yard game.
Week 6 at Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Evans feasted on the Dolphins last week, finishing 6-113-2 on eight targets. It's the second time he's hit 100 yards in a game this year, and the fourth game in a row he's had at least 75 receiving yards. It'd be nice if Evans' touchdowns came at a more consistent rate (he's scored four times total, but those all came in just two games), but he's still producing even when he's not scoring. He'll draw a tough matchup this week against the Eagles, who have allowed the fewest total receptions to wide receivers so far this season, and the third-fewest receiving yards. The Eagles have allowed five receiving touchdowns to WRs, though, so if Evans can just find the endzone again his other production won't matter as much. We like Evans as a low-end WR1 or a high-end WR2 this week.
Week 5 vs. Miami Dolphins
Mike Evans saw a team-high 12 targets last week, finishing 7-75. It's the third game in a row he's finished with at least nine targets and 75 receiving yards. After a tough Week 1, Evans has been pretty consistent. We'd expect him to finish in that 70-80 receiving yards range again in Week 5 in a decent matchup against the Dolphins. That would make Evans a strong WR2 play this week vs. Miami.
Week 4 at New England Patriots
We expected Mike Evans to struggle somewhat last week in a tough matchup against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams, but Evans ended up with his first 100-yard game of the season. Evans saw 10 targets, finishing 8-106. Of course, there was a somewhat expected increase in targets considering Antonio Brown's absence, but Evans has now put up back-to-back good games. Luckily, Mike Evans won't be going up against Stephon Gilmore (PUP list) this week, but the Patriots have still been a tough matchup allowing the third-fewest (tied) receptions (30) and the seventh-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Still, Evans can be trusted as a lower-end WR2 play in Week 4.
Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Mike Evans bounced back from a disappointing Week 1 effort with a strong Week 2 stat line of 5-75-2 on nine targets. The Bucs could be without Antonio Brown this week, which should mean a few more targets to Evans, even though they play different roles in this offense. However, Evans will likely be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey for the majority of Week 3. Per Next Gen Stats, in Evans' matchup against Ramsey in 2020 he ran 33 routes against the CB, seeing 7 targets and finishing with 4 receptions for 40 yards. However, Evans was able to score a touchdown in that game while not covered by Ramsey. Evans drops to low-end WR2 status in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans struggled to get open with Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs covering him. Per Next Gen Stats, Diggs covered Evans on 79.6% of his coverage snaps. As a result, Evans finished 3-24 on six targets. Unfortunately, Evans has some games like this. He had three games last season where he finished with 10 yards or less. Although he can usually bail out his low receiving yards with a touchdown. We expect Evans to get back on track in Week 2 in a favorable matchup against the Falcons. In his only full game against the Falcons last year, Evans was able to top the 100-yard mark. We like Evans as a strong WR2 play this week.
Week 1 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Mike Evans is coming off of a record-setting seven straight 1,000-yard seasons and he's on pace for even more considering there's an extra game on the schedule. Evans has gotten off to a slow start in the first game of the season the last two years, finishing 2-28 in 2019 and 1-2 last year. But this is a new year, and we're expecting a solid debut from Evans. We're projecting him to finish with around four receptions for 60 yards with a high probability of a touchdown. It's hard to see Evans be as dominating as he was in 2018 as there are many mouths to feed in Tampa Bay, but he's still a strong WR2 play in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
He just barely made it, but Mike Evans extended his 1,000-yard streak again in 2020. Evans is the first player in NFL history to begin their career with seven straight 1,000-yard seasons. Not only that, but Evans set a career-high with 13 touchdowns last season, scoring in all but six games (and one of those games he played just 11 snaps). And despite a number of talented options in this Bucs offense, Evans still finished with over 100 targets (109). With Tom Brady returning, it’s hard to see Evans’ numbers falling off too much.
Fantasy Downside
While Evans did set a career-high with 13 touchdowns last season, he also set some career lows. He had the fewest number of targets he’s seen in a season (6.8 per game) and had the lowest yards per game (62.9). Those numbers could take another hit in 2021 as the Bucs will have Antonio Brown for the full year (instead of half like last year), O.J. Howard is expected to return from injury and the team added Giovani Bernard. We also expect his touchdown pace to cool off, as we project he’ll finish closer to eight scores this season.
2021 Bottom Line
Evans is a top-tier receiving talent in the NFL, but this is an offense loaded with talent and targets will be hard to come by consistently. We saw that last year as Evans had four games (including the playoffs) with 10 yards or less. We still expect him to be a 1,000-yard receiver, making him a strong WR2 player. He’s being drafted around the 15th WR off the board, which is a fair value for Evans.
Week 17 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans had an insane game last week, tearing apart the Lions for a 10-181-2 stat line. He's now 40 yards shy of 1,000 on the season, which is a milestone the Bucs have been open about wanting to get Evans to. Evans has topped 100 receiving yards in back-to-back games, and one of those games was against the Falcons — his matchup this week. While it'd be unfair to predict another 100-yard game, it is fair to expect a big game from Evans once again. He's on a hot streak, and the Bucs want to at least get him to 40+ yards. It's also a favorable matchup against a Falcons defense allowing the third-most receiving yards to WRs this season. Evans is a must-start WR1 in Week 17.
