Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans saw a team-high 10 targets last week and finished 4-49. Evans has now finished with 40 and 49 yards in his last two games after starting the season with three straight games of 60 yards or more. The good news, though, is Evans has seen 10 targets in three of the five games he's played, so he's clearly a priority for Baker Mayfield and this offense. He'll look to get back on track this week, although he'll draw a tough matchup against the Falcons (3rd aFPA). Despite the tough matchup, we still like Evans as a low-end WR1 this week. He's hit a slight speed bump, but he's still been productive overall this season.
Week 6 vs. Detroit Lions
Mike Evans didn't do much in Week 4 as he finished 3-40 before exiting early due to a hamstring injury. Luckily for Evans owners, the Bucs had a bye in Week 5 so Evans had time to heal up without officially missing a game. Although his status for Week 6 is in question as he missed Wednesday's practice. If Evans is healthy enough to play, he'll draw a favorable matchup against the Lions who are 27th in aFPA to WRs. In the first three games this season where Evans fully played, he scored a touchdown and topped 60 yards in all of them. So if he's active, Evans should be viewed as a strong WR1 option.
Week 4 at New Orleans Saints
The Bucs' offense struggled to do much of anything in Week 3, but somehow Mike Evans escaped with a solid stat line of 5-60-1 on a team-high 10 targets. Evans has now finished with at least five reception, 60 yards and a touchdown in every game this season. He's currently WR5 in half-PPR scoring, which is greatly out-pacing his preseason ADP. We're still not fully trusting he can keep this pace up, but it's a nice start nonetheless. This week, he'll draw the Saints, a team he's had a unique history against. Evans has gotten into three physical altercations with New Orleans CB Marshon Lattimore, which has led to ejections in the past. If Evans can keep his cool and remain in the game, he should be a solid WR2 play in Week 4.
Week 3 vs Philadelphia Eagles
Mike Evans exploded for a 6-171-1 stat line in Week 2. His big day was highlighted by a 70-yard catch that would have been another touchdown if Evans had any speed at all. Evans has now finished with six receptions in back-to-back games to start 2023 with a total of 18 targets. This week he faces an Eagles defense that through two games has given up the 6th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Although last season, this Eagles defense was tough against wideouts. Given his production so far this year, we like Evans as a solid WR2 play for Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Chicago Bears
Mike Evans had a strong Week 1 with Baker Mayfield. The veteran WR finished 6-66-1 as he caught one of the two passing touchdowns on the team. Evans also led the team with 10 targets, four more than any other player. We'd expect Evans to put up similar yardage numbers this week against the Bears. He's not quite the strong WR1 option he was a few years ago, but he should be productive enough to be a reliable WR2, which is how he should be viewed going into Week 2.
Week 1 at Minnesota Vikings
Mike Evans will start Week 1 for the Bucs despite some reported contract disputes with the team. It seems like there's a chance he could be traded at some point this season, but for now let's just focus on Week 1. Evans will face a Vikings defense that gave up the 2nd-most average fantasy points to wide receivers a year ago. We're expecting this Bucs offense as a whole to take a step back considering they've gone from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, and that reflects in our rankings. But Evans is still one of the most talented receivers in the league. He should be viewed as a WR2 option to start the season.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Evans is coming off his ninth consecutive season with at least 1,000 receiving yards, an NFL record to start a career. Evans was pretty consistent with his production last season, topping 50 receiving yards in 10 of his 15 games, and 70 yards in seven of his games. He also had at least five receptions in eight games. All of that production had him finish as the fantasy WR16, or WR13 in points per game. Evans has been a pretty reliable option throughout his career, and has some promise heading into 2023.
Fantasy Downside
While Evans did top 1,000 receiving yards last season, he struggled when it came to scoring touchdowns. He did end up scoring six times, but three of those scores came in a single game. In fact, he only scored a touchdown in three total games all season. Evans will also notably be without Tom Brady this season. Brady set an NFL record for pass attempts last season, and it’s not likely that expected starter Baker Mayfield will throw the ball the same amount. Expect production for this offense to be down all around.
2023 Bottom Line
Evans has been a reliable fantasy asset for years, but there are some serious concerns heading into 2023. Evans will be 30 when the season starts, and entering his 10th season in the league. And without Brady in the picture, it’s hard to see Evans being his same self in 2023. Our projections have him finishing below 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career. He’s still a talented receiver though, and could be a steal if Mayfield can surprise people. He should be viewed around the WR30 range heading into this season.
Week 17 vs. Carolina Panthers
Mike Evans saw a solid eight targets last week, but didn't do a whole lot with them, finishing 3-29. Fantasy owners are lucky the game went into overtime because two of Evans' three catches in the game were in OT. Evans got off to a hot start this season, but he's struggled lately as he's only topped 60 receiving yards once since Week 8. In that seven-game span, he's averaged 48.6 yards, and he of course hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4. On the bright side, he hasn't had many dud games, meaning he usually provides a nice floor. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Panthers (27th aFPA) this week, a team he finished 9-96 against earlier in the season. It's hard to fully trust Evans given his slump, but he's still a solid WR2 option in Week 17.
Week 16 at Arizona Cardinals
Mike Evans had one of his better games last week, finishing 5-83 on nine targets. His 83 receiving yards are his most since Week 8 this season. Unfortunately, Evans still hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4. Evans is still having a decent season overall, averaging 68.3 yards per game, which is his highest with Tom Brady at QB. But the lack of scoring is really becoming an issue. His yardage has been fairly consistent, though, and he should still be viewed as a mid-tier WR2 option as he gets a decent matchup vs. the Cardinals (18th aFPA) in Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Evans had an OK performance last week, finishing with four receptions for 44 yards. While we here at 4for4 love our fours, we're sure fantasy managers were hoping for more from Evans. He still hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4 and he's been in a slump lately, averaging 45.6 yards over his last five games. He'll look to turn things around in Week 15 in an OK matchup vs. the Bengals (19th aFPA). It feels like Evans is going to turn it around any day considering he's averaging 8.2 targets per game, but him and Brady just don't appear to be in sync. Still, Evans should be viewed as a solid mid-tier WR2 option for Week 15.
