Week 14 at San Francisco 49ers
Mike Evans didn't have to deal with Marshon Lattimore last week, but he still had a fairly disappointing game against the Saints. In a game where Tom Brady threw the ball 54 times, Evans only saw four targets, finishing 4-59. This game extends Evans' scoreless streak to eight games. In addition to the lack of scoring, Evans hasn't done much in terms of yards either, averaging 4.0 receptions for 46 yards over his past four games. Evans at least gets a decent matchup against the 49ers (28th aFPA) this week, so we'll see if he can get back on track. We like Evans as a high-end WR2 option for Week 14.
Week 13 vs. New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans saw a solid nine targets last week, but struggled to haul in many passes as he had just two receptions for 31 yards, both season lows. It was an odd game for Evans that we can mostly mark up to being an outlier performance. He should get back on track this week, but Evans will face a Saints defense that is likely to get his nemesis Marshon Lattimore back in the lineup. Evans was ejected from Week 2's matchup vs. the Saints after a brawl with Lattimore, which also happened back in 2017. Evans has a history with New Orleans, including some of his worst career games, but he was playing well (3-61) against them earlier in the year before his ejection. As long as he keeps his tempers in check, Evans should be a low-end WR1 option for Week 13.
Week 12 at Cleveland Browns
Mike Evans had an OK outing in Week 10, finishing 5-54 on six targets. Overall, Evans has been solid this year, averaging 5.4 receptions for 74.6 yards. But Evans hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4, which is surprising since he scored 13 and 14 touchdowns in his two prior seasons with Tom Brady. His lack of touchdowns aren't the worst since he's averaging the 14th-most receiving yards per game, but it certainly limits his ceiling. Evans should be viewed as a low-end WR1 option in Week 12 in an OK matchup vs. the Browns (14th aFPA).
Week 10 vs. Seattle Seahawks in Germany
Mike Evans had an OK outing last week. He saw a team-high 11 targets, but finished 5-40-0. It's the fifth straight game Evans has finished without a touchdown, which is rare for the big wide receiver. In his previous two seasons with Tom Brady, Evans has seen double digit touchdowns (13, 14) and it felt like he had a chance to even top those years in 2022 with Gronk departing. Instead, the Bucs' offense has struggled as Tom Brady has a career-low TD%. But even with the lack of scoring, Evans has mostly been productive this year, averaging 77.1 yards per game, which is his most in a season with Brady. Evans draws a tough matchup this week vs. the Seahawks (5th aFPA), but he's seen double-digit targets in three consecutive games. He should still be viewed as a low-end WR1 play in Week 10.
Week 9 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Mike Evans set a season high in receiving yards last week, finishing 6-123 on 11 targets. It's the fourth game in a row Evans has been held without a touchdown, and his fifth time this season (in seven games). Despite the lack of scoring, Evans is having one of his more productive seasons, averaging 82.4 yards per game, which is essentially 20 yards more per game than he's averaged in the previous two seasons with Tom Brady at QB. This week, Evans draws a matchup against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams. It sounds like a tough matchup, but the Rams have actually struggled a bit this season when it comes to defending receivers. We'd expect Evans to continue his strong production in Week 9 and should be viewed as a top 10 WR.
Week 8 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Mike Evans got off to a horrible start last week, dropping what would have been a 64-yard touchdown. He still ended up with a productive game, though, seeing a team-high 15 targets, finishing 9-96-0. His nine receptions were a season high, and his 96 yards were the second most he's had in a game this season. Evans hasn't found the end zone as much this year (3), but he's having a good season overall. He's averaging 75.7 yards per game, which is the most in a season since Tom Brady took over. He should continue that high level of production this week in a favorable matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the 6th-most aFPA to wide receivers this season. Evans should be viewed as a strong WR1 play in Week 8.
Week 7 at Carolina Panthers
Mike Evans had an OK outing last week, finishing 4 for 42 (hey a 4for4 reference!) on four targets. Evans' 42 receiving yards were a season low, which is a bit disappointing given the favorable matchup, but 4-42 isn't a bad floor. Evans is still a top-tier option, especially this week in another favorable matchup against the Panthers. Evans has caught a touchdown against Carolina in three straight games and has historically played well against the Panthers. He should be viewed as a must-start WR1 in Week 7.
Week 6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Evans led the Bucs in targets last week (8), finishing 4-81. It was a pretty standard Evans game, aside from the lack of a touchdown. Evans has always been on the lower-end of receptions, making big plays downfield and in the red zone. Evans should continue to be productive as he enters a favorable Week 6 matchup vs. the Steelers. Pittsburgh has allowed the most average fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season. Evans should be viewed as a must-start WR1 this week.
Week 5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans returned from suspension last week and had a statement game, finishing 8-103-2 on 10 targets. In his three games played, Evans is averaging 5.3 receptions for 78.3 yards with three total touchdowns. We'd expect that high level of production to continue in Week 5, especially in a favorable matchup vs. the Falcons. Atlanta is giving up the 7th-most average fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Evans should be viewed as a must-start WR1 this week.
Week 4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Mike Evans returns this week after missing Week 3 with a suspension. In the first two games of the season, Evans finished 5-71 and 3-61. With Chris Godwin likely out again, and potentially Julio Jones, Evans is in a good spot in Week 4 as he should see plenty of targets. He gets a middle-of-the-road matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City does have a good CB in L'Jarius Sneed, but the Bucs will likely find ways to get Evans open regardless. Based on Evans' production so far, he should be viewed as a solid WR1 play in Week 4.
