Week 2 at New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans had a solid Week 1, finishing 5-71-1 on a team-high seven targets. It's even more impressive when you consider he had an injury scare during the game. Evans should continue to lead the team in targets as Chris Godwin has been sidelined with another injury. Although Evans will draw the Saints this week, a team he's struggled against in his career. In his last six games vs. New Orleans, Evans has averaged 2.0 receptions for 32.8 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. They aren't great numbers, but Evans did top 60 yards in two of those games. There's a chance for a dud game from Evans, but he should still be viewed as a must-start WR1. If nothing else, Evans is a strong redzone threat who can be bailed out with a score. Although his health is worth monitoring as he was listed as DNP on Thursday with a calf injury.
Week 1 at Dallas Cowboys
Mike Evans is the definition of consistent with eight straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards or more. As long as he stays healthy, he'll cross that mark again this season, which means an average of 60 yards per game. Evans is also a strong redzone threat, highlighted by his 14 scores last season. And with Gronk gone, it makes Evans even more of a target in the redzone. Evans gets an okay matchup vs. the Cowboys in Week 1. He struggled against them last year, finishing 3-24-0 in a game where Tom Brady had 379 yards and four touchdowns. We'd expect a better outing this year, though. He should be viewed as a strong WR1 play.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Mike Evans continued his streak of 1,000-yard seasons last year, which is impressive considering the depth of talent that included Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski. But now Godwin is returning from a torn ACL, Brown left in a shirtless rampage, and Gronk retired. So Evans will become the primary focus for at least the first half of the season until Godwin returns. In the past three seasons since Godwin has become a starter, Evans averaged 113.7 targets per season. In Evans’ first five seasons in the league, he averaged 143.4 targets per season. While he may not quite reach 140 targets this year, we should see an increase in targets overall in 2022. And with Tom Brady returning at QB, they will be quality targets. In the past two seasons with Brady at QB, Evans has finished as WR9 and WR10, and we expect Evans to be a top-10 fantasy WR again in year three.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Evans has a tendency to have some really bad games, including four games with less than 30 yards and no touchdowns last season, and three games in 2020 with 10 receiving yards or less. He’s also been bailed out a few times with his red zone proficiency, scoring a touchdown in what would have otherwise been a low-scoring game. Evans is not a PPR darling who is going to get you 90+ receptions. He’s only reached that milestone once in his career and that was when he saw 173 targets, a number he’s unlikely to reach again. Evans will be 29 when the season starts, which is past the peak for a WR.
2022 Bottom Line
The biggest complaint about Evans heading into last season was the crowded receiving corps in Tampa Bay, but with Brown and Gronk gone it really opens the door. Evans has already been an incredibly reliable fantasy option with eight straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards, while averaging 9.3 touchdowns per year. With Brady returning, Evans should see another 1K year with double-digit touchdowns if he’s able to stay healthy. And so far in his career, Evans has remained healthy, playing at least 13 games every year. Evans should be viewed as a top-10 WR this year, available in the late-second or early-third rounds of 12 team leagues.
Week 17 at New York Jets
Mike Evans was activated from the team's COVID/Reserve list this week, so he's cleared one of two hurdles. He now must recover from a hamstring injury he suffered a few weeks ago. He's officially listed as questionable, and it'd be a fairly quick recovery from a hamstring injury. But the Bucs are still trying to climb the NFC Playoff seeding, so they could use Evans back in the lineup after losing Chris Godwin and also having Antonio Brown (ankle) injured. If he does play, he'll draw a favorable matchup against the Jets. Although it's highly possible he'd play on a snap count. His health will be worth monitoring, but if he does play he should be viewed as a solid WR2 play.
Week 15 vs. New Orleans Saints
Even with Chris Godwin soaking up 32 targets the past two games, Mike Evans has still been successful with back-to-back 90-yard efforts. Last week he finished 6-91-1 on six targets. Evans has been a touchdown machine, averaging nearly a touchdown per game (0.8). But even when he's not scoring, he's being productive with a strong average of 4.8 receptions and 68.1 yards. This week he gets an interesting matchup vs. the Saints. New Orleans is a favorable matchup on paper, but Evans has historically struggled against the Saints. In the five games since the start of 2019, Evans has a combined 11 receptions, averaging 36.6 yards with two touchdowns. Earlier this year, Evans went 2-48-1 vs. the Saints. While Evans' history vs. the Saints is worrisome, it's also not a reason to bench him. He's still one of the league's most productive receivers, and this should be a favorable matchup. He's still a low-end WR1 heading into Week 15.
Week 14 @ Buffalo Bills
Even with Chris Godwin eating up 15 receptions last week, Mike Evans still had a solid performance, finishing 7-99 on 10 targets. It's his seventh game (in 12 starts) this season with at least five receptions and 70 receiving yards. That's a really strong floor, especially in this offense that features so many weapons. We're projecting Evans to hit right around those numbers this week. We wouldn't anticipate a monster game from Evans given the tough matchup against the Bills, who have allowed the fewest average fantasy points to wide receivers. But Evans should still be productive and be viewed as a lower-end WR1 play in Week 14.
Week 13 at Atlanta Falcons
Mike Evans set a season-low in receiving last week as he finished 3-16-0 on six targets. It's his third real dud game of the season as it's the third time he's finished below 30 receiving yards with no touchdowns. Those types of games are bound to happen in an offense with so many weapons as someone is likely to catch the hot hand. Last week it was Leonard Fournette and Gronk. This week it could be Evans again, as he draws a favorable matchup vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has given up the 6th-most average fantasy points to opposing receivers. Evans looked good against Atlanta earlier in the year, finishing 5-75-2 on nine targets. Evans can be trusted as a strong WR1 option in Week 13.
Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts
Mike Evans led the Bucs with 11 targets last week, finishing with a strong stat line of 6-73-1. He also added 10 yards on a carry. Evans has been a scoring machine, finding the endzone in four consecutive games, and scoring a total of eight touchdowns in his last six outings. We wouldn't be surprised if he continued his scoring streak to five games as he draws a favorable matchup vs. the Colts this week. Indianapolis has allowed the most receiving touchdowns (17) to wide receivers so far this season. With Evans' recent production and the favorable matchup, fantasy owners should view him as a solid WR1 play in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. New York Giants
Mike Evans has had similar games in back-to-back weeks, finishing with two receptions each, but managing to score on a long touchdown in each as well. In his last five games, Evans has finished with two receptions three times. But he's also scored seven touchdowns in that span. Typically we'd say that type of touchdown production is unreliable, but Evans is clearly making it work. He gets an OK matchup against the Giants this week, who have given up 10 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in nine games this season. Evans should be a low-end WR1 this week.
Week 10 @ Washington Football Team
As we mentioned in our previous blurb, Mike Evans struggles when he plays the Saints. This was true in Week 8 as he finished with just two catches in the game. But thankfully for fantasy owners, one of those receptions was a 41-yard touchdown. Evans should bounce back this week as he gets a favorable matchup against Washington, who is allowing the second-most average fantasy points to WRs. And Evans could see a truckload of targets if Chris Godwin is also ruled out (Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski have already been ruled out). With Evans' production so far this season and a great matchup, he should be viewed as a top-five WR in Week 10.
