Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders end their season coming off an emotional win in what could have been the last NFL game played in Oakland but now walk into Arrowhead for a game the Chiefs need to win to ensure home field advantage. Combine that with an implied team total of fewer than 20 points this week, and this is an offense that carries great fantasy risk to end the regular season. Carr may have had a good outing a few weeks back against a struggling secondary, but he's still not a 1QB league option.
Week 16 vs. Denver Broncos
Oakland hosts Denver as a home underdog with an implied team total of just 20 points. In what could be the last game the Raiders ever play in Oakland, one would expect Jon Gruden to have this team ready to play well. In fantasy though, we care more about quantifiable factors more than narratives. Denver is top five in aFPA to QBs, and Derek Carr has failed to post 16 fantasy points in his last three games against this defense. Look elsewhere for a streaming QB in Week 16.
Week 15 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Raiders head to the eastern time zone for an early kickoff in Cincinnati. Oakland is a road underdog with a middle of the road implied team total, which should lead to negative game script. Derek Carr is coming off back-to-back fantasy relevant performances. He's playing well at the end of the year, and given the Bengals struggling defense (19th in aFPA to QBs), Carr is a desperation match-up based streaming option for Week 15. But he's not much more than that.
Week 14 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Raiders have an implied team total of fewer than 21 points, among the bottom ten teams in the league this week. The Steelers defense has had its struggles, but recently, that has come against offenses much better than Oakland's. Pittsburgh still ranks sixth in aFPA to QBs. Derek Carr has just three weeks this season with fantasy production of more than 16 fantasy points. He's not a viable option in 1QB leagues.
Week 13 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City may only be ranked 25th in aFPA to QBs, but Carr has failed to reach 16 fantasy points in nine of 11 games this year, including four straight. He has receivers at this point in the season that wouldn't make the roster of a lot of teams. A very high over/under in this game keeps the Raiders from the bottom teams in implied team total for Week 13, but Carr's production continues to keep him away ... far away ... from fantasy lineups.
Week 12 at Baltimore Ravens
The Raiders travel across the country as a double-digit underdog, tied for the lowest implied team total of Week 12 at just 16 points. Baltimore also ranks top 10 in aFPA to QBs. To make things worse, Derek Carr's receivers are down to Marcell Ateman, Seth Roberts and Dwayne Harris. Woof. Carr has struggled already this season, failing to reach 16 fantasy points in all but two games this season. Carr is not a viable option in single QB leagues this week.
Week 11 at Arizona Cardinals
The Raiders are so bad at this point in the season that Oakland is a 5.5-point underdog to a two-win team this week. The Raiders implied team total of 17.5 points is also the lowest on the slate this week by a full two points. That's not a recipe for fantasy success. For Derek Carr, the Cardinals are second in the league in aFPA to QBs. If you weren't convinced he's not a viable fantasy QB this year after he threw it into the ground on 4th down last week, perhaps back-to-back single-digit fantasy performances will. Woof.
Week 10 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Let's check in on the Raiders offense as they begin the second half of their season: 19th in total offense, 28th in scoring offense and 24th in rushing offense. The Jon Gruden era is going swimmingly so far. So you still want to know if you should start Derek Carr in fantasy this week? Well, he hasn't reached 14 points in his last four games against the Chargers and has only two games with more than 16 points this season. You do the math.
Week 9 at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday)
Dare we say trading Amari Cooper might have been addition by subtraction? Carr lit up the Colts last week and now gets another viable match-up against the struggling 49ers, who are just 29th in aFPA to QBs. This game has a low implied team total, but the 49ers may be starting a third-string QB, which could lead to more volume for Carr and the offense. He's a viable match-up based streamer if you're in need of a bye-week back-up in deep leagues.
Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders come out of the bye week without their top RB (Marshawn Lynch, injured reserve) and WR (Amari Cooper, trade) for the rest of the season. A banged-up offensive line doesn't help, either. This game does have an over/under north of 50, but Oakland's implied team total is only middle of the pack in Week 8. Carr has just one fantasy relevant game this season. He's a low-end QB2 in Week 8.
