Week 8 at Tampa Bay
Derek Carr went 23-of-37 for 200 yards with 1 TD in a 33-16 win against the Jaguars in Week 7. Carr has thrown just two touchdown passes in the past two weeks and has quietly been “okay” through seven weeks, as he is 14th in fantasy points per game (17.9) and is 10th in passing yards per game (258.4). Carr averaged 249.2 passing yards per game last season and the Raiders team total is hovering around just 24.5 points this week. Carr is a low-end QB1 against the Bucs, who rank squarely in the middle of QB aFPA.
Week 7 at Jacksonville
Derek Carr was 22-34 for 225 yards with one TD in a 10-26 loss against the Chiefs in Week 6. Carr has quietly been “okay” through six weeks, as he is eighth in fantasy points per game (18.8), has the fourth-most touchdown passes (12) and has completed 66.5 percent (12th in the NFL) of his throws. Carr averaged 249.2 passing yards per game last season, and the Raiders team total is hovering around just 23 points this week. Carr is a low-end QB1 against the Jaguars, who rank right around average in QB aFPA.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City
Derek Carr was 25-40 for 317 yards with three TDs in a 34-31 win against the Chargers in Week 5. He is quietly seventh-best in the league in passer rating (102.3) through five weeks, but the Chiefs have allowed multiple touchdowns just once this year. Carr averaged 249.2 passing yards per game last season, and the Raiders team total is hovering around just 23 points this week. Carr is a low-end QB1 against the Chiefs, who rank stronger than average in QB aFPA.
Week 5 vs. San Diego
Derek Carr was 25-35 for 199 yards with 4 TD in a 28-27 win against the Ravens in Week 4. He comes into a Week 5 matchup against the Chargers fifth in completion percentage (68%) and fourth in touchdowns. Carr faces a Chargers team in Week 5 who that allowing the fifth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in 2016. Carr has also been very efficient, boasting a 104.6 passer rating through the first four weeks (fourth in the NFL). Carr averaged 249.2 passing yards per game last season, and the Raiders team total is hovering around 27 this week. Carr is a mid-range QB1 against the Chargers, who rank near the bottom of the league in QB aFPA.
DWeek 4 at Baltimore
erek Carr was 21-35 for 249 yards with one TD and one interception in a Week 3 win against the Titans. Carr comes into a Week 4 matchup against the Ravens with 118 pass attempts in two games (seventh most in the league), after averaging 249.2 passing yards per game last season. Carr should be asked to do less through the air to stay in games, but this week is a high-end QB2 against the Ravens (who rank near the bottom of the league in QB aFPA).
Week 3 at Tennessee
Derek Carr was 34-45 for 299 yards with 3 TD and no interceptions in a 28-35 loss against the Falcons in Week 2. Carr comes into a Week 3 matchup against the Titans with 83 pass attempts in two games, eighth-most in the league. Carr has also been very efficient boasting a 107.4 passer rating through the first two weeks. Carr averaged 249.2 passing yards per game last season and the Raiders team total is hovering around 22.75 this week. For a Raiders team that was supposed to be much better on defense this year, Carr should be asked to do less through the air to stay in games, but this week is a high end QB2 against the Titans, who rank near the top of the league in QB aFPA.
Week 2 vs. Atlanta
Derek Carr was 24-38 for 319 yards with 1 TD, no interceptions, in a 35-34 victory over the Saints in Week 1, adding 16 rushing yards on 2 carries. Carr comes into a Week 2 matchup against the Falcons after a solid Week 1 win after boasting a 91.1% Passer Rating and 61.1% Completion Percentage in the preseason.Carr averaged 249.2 passing yards per game last season and the Raiders team total is hovering around 26.75 this week. For a Raiders team that is projected to be much better this year, Carr will be asked to do less through the air to stay in games. But this week, he is a low-end QB1 against the Falcons, who rank near the top of the league in QB aFPA.
Week 1 at New Orleans
Derek Carr comes into a Week 1 matchup against the Saints with a 91.1 percent passer rating and 61.1 percent completion percentage in the preseason. Carr averaged 249.2 passing yards per game last season and the Raiders team total is hovering around 25 this week. For a Raiders team that is projected to be much better this year, Carr will be asked to do less through the air to stay in games but this week is a mid-to-high end QB1 against the Saints, who rank near the bottom of the league in QB aFPA.
Fantasy Upside
The Raiders should be a very improved team overall in 2016 and they also have one of the best schedules as far as pass defense for Derek Carr to take advantage of. His primary weapon, Amari Cooper, was injured late in the year when the offense sputtered. There is no shortage of weapons for the Carr as in 2015 he threw 717 more yards and 11 more touchdowns than his rookie season. His completion percentage also went up from 58.1 percent to 61.1 percent.
Fantasy Downside
Derek Carr started strong in 2015 but from Week 10 on threw just 13 touchdowns paired with 9 interceptions. He has shown flashes of big time ability but has struggled to remain consistent. Head coach Jack Del Rio is very defensive minded and seems content to lean more heavily on the power run game than through the air. Carr’s total attempts could go down this year as a result.
2016 Bottom Line
The Raiders have built there team to play a more conservative and physical running style of football. There offensive line should be one of, if not the, best in the league in regards to run blocking. Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave will emphasize running the ball heavily which doesn’t favor Car and the passing game. Carr’s lack of inefficiency is notable given that his volume will most likely decrease and this does not spell good things for his fantasy value. Carr is not a viable fantasy option in regards to what players are around his ADP.
Week 17 at Kansas City
Unable to get much going on Christmas Eve against San Diego, Derek Carr heated up when it counted, putting up numbers in the fourth quarter and overtime as Oakland won their seventh game of the season 23-20. Nonetheless, the fact that Carr threw for 204 yards and one touchdown was a big disappointment for anyone who started him during a fantasy Super Bowl.
Carr had 283 yards and two touchdowns earlier this year when the Raiders squared off with the Chiefs, but also threw three interceptions. After struggling earlier in the season, the Kansas City pass defense has become quite good and will limit Derek’s upside. With most quarterbacks slated to see normal playing time on Sunday, Carr would only be a good option in a 2QB league finale.
