Week 6 vs. Seattle Seahawks (London)
The real Derek Carr reared his ugly fantasy head in Week 5. He's now failed to throw multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season with a 7-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio. Traveling to the UK is never easy on teams, and the Seahawks are top half in the NFL in aFPA to QBs. Carr's inconsistency does not make him a viable option in Week 6 for 1QB leagues.
Week 5 at Los Angeles Chargers
Derek Carr flashed last week, but we need to see more consistency from him to feel confident about putting him in starting lineups. The Chargers may only be ranked 23rd in aFPA to QBs, but Carr has failed to reach 12 fantasy points in his last three meetings with the Bolts. In deep leagues, if you're desperate for a streaming option, perhaps. But in most cases, hard pass on Carr in Week 5.
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Derek Carr has not reached 16 fantasy points in any of his first three games this season and now faces a revamped Browns defense that checks in first in aFPA against fantasy quarterbacks. Despite being a favorite, Oakland has a low 23.75 implied team total for Week 3. You can't start Carr with any confidence in start-one quarterback leagues.
Week 3 at Miami Dolphins
The Raiders have the dreaded cross-country, early eastern time zone kickoff Sunday in Miami. Las Vegas has taken note, too, as the Raiders have a low 20.5-point implied team total. Derek Carr has failed to reach 16 fantasy points in back-to-back games, despite completing 29-of-32 passes last week. How is that possible? Miami is also third on the early season in points allowed to fantasy quarterbacks. Carr is not worthy of starting consideration in 1QB leagues in Week 3.
Week 2 at Denver Broncos
Act II of Jon Gruden had an inauspicious start in Week 1. Prospects for Week 2 are not promising for his quarterback. The Broncos were top-10 last season in aFPA to QBs. They did allow 298 yards and three touchdowns to Russell Wilson last week, but Derek Carr is no Russ Wilson. The Raiders also have an implied team total under 20 points in Las Vegas. Carr failed to reach 16 fantasy points in two meetings against this division rival last season. Hard pass on Carr in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Welcome back to the Jon Gruden era, where the Raiders will start with a bottom-half implied team total in Vegas for Week 1. Derek Carr will face a stingy defense that added Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib at corner and Ndamukong Suh to go with Aaron Donald up front. Yikes. Plus, the Rams were already in the top 10 in aFPA to QBs last season before those big-name additions. Carr is not a starting consideration in leagues that start only one quarterback this week.
Fantasy Upside
Carr's upside comes from the faith that he will bounce back from a disappointing 2017 season to the fantasy quarterback we saw in 2016, when he finished as the QB9. He finished that season with 28 TDs and only six interceptions. Perhaps Jon Gruden can breathe some life into this offense.
Fantasy Downside
Derek Carr's 2017 was horrendous from a fantasy perspective. He ranked just 24th among QBs in fantasy points per game with nine games of fewer than 15 fantasy points. Carr also has seven bad matchups against teams ranked in the top 10 in our aFPA vs. QB rankings.
2018 Bottom Line
Carr does come cheaply in the double-digit rounds, but he is nothing more than a depth option in one-QB leagues for owners hoping he returns to 2016 form. Find a better starting option.
Week 17 at Los Angeles Chargers
Oakland ends its season in Los Angeles, facing a Chargers defense revved up to try and make the postseason. That's not a good combination for Derek Carr, who has not put up QB1 numbers on the road this season. Plus, the Chargers' high ranking in aFPA to QBs is another reason to fade Carr to end the regular season.
Week 16 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Raiders go cross-country for a Christmas night battle with the Eagles. However, there is little upside in this matchup for Derek Carr. He's failed to reach 18 fantasy points in seven straight weeks with some real clunkers mixed in, and Oakland faces a Philadelphia defense that is top 10 in aFPA against QBs. Find other options in Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Raiders face the Cowboys in a must-win game for their playoff hopes. Oakland has an implied team total in Vegas below the top half of teams for Week 15. Low QB1s in 12-team leagues this season have averaged around 16-17 fantasy points per game. Carr has not had a week with that many points since Week 7. At this critical juncture of the season, you can't start him with any confidence.
