Week 14 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs-Raiders game has the second-highest over/under in Vegas for Week 14, and Chiefs top corner Marcus Peters has been suspended by the team (although he's played poorly anyway). Carr racked up 30.2 points on the Chiefs earlier this year, but most of that was due to Amari Cooper's rare breakout game. Amari Cooper is likely out this week; however, the ceiling is undeniable for Carr this week, as Kansas City is dead last in aFPA vs. QBs this season. However, the floor is still low, as his other previous games before this season against the Chiefs suggest. The wide range of outcomes reflects our ranking for him this week. If you have a safer option, it may be best to use him in the fantasy playoffs.
Week 13 vs. New York Giants
Derek Carr is facing a Giants defense that is ranked 24th in aFPA versus quarterbacks this year and just lost CB Janoris Jenkins to IR. However, Carr will be without his best two receivers in Michael Crabtree (suspension) and Amari Cooper (ankle, councussion). That factor means you should not start him in 1QB leagues, as he already has four straight games where he has not been a top-12 QB.
Week 12 vs. Denver Broncos
The Raiders offense isn't consistent this season. However, the Broncos aren't the stingy fantasy defense we've come to know over the past three weeks, allowing 22.3 points per game in that span to Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, and Andy Dalton. Carr is still too inconsistent to start in 1QB leagues though, as he's had three straight weeks under 15 fantasy points.
Week 11 vs. New England Patriots (game in Mexico City)
Hola amigos! The Raiders head south of the border to face the Patriots in Mexico City, a defense that has allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots are also way down in our aFPA vs. QB rankings (31st). Consider Carr a mid-to-low-end QB1 for Week 11.
Week 9 at Miami Dolphins
Carr appears to be matchup dependent this season, as he followed a 30-point performance against a below average Kansas City defense with a 12.5-point performance at Buffalo. Against the Dolphins this week, Carr gets another good matchup, as the Dolphins rank 22nd in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. Consider him a low-end QB1 in Week 9.
Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
Fresh off one of the best games of his career, Derek Carr now must go to Buffalo and face a Bills defense ranked fifth in our aFPA vs. QB rankings. Don't let recency bias cloud your judgment here. The Bills are allowing just 12.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, sixth-best. There are better Week 8 options for 1QB leagues, unless you're really in a bye week pickle.
Week 7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Derek Carr hasn't had a usable fantasy week since Week 2, as he's either been injured or put up single-digit fantasy performances. On Thursday night, he gets a Chiefs defense that is middle of the road in our aFPA vs. QB rankings, and the Raiders implied team total of 22 is outside the top-10 for Week 7. He also hasn't scored more than 13.3 points in his last four games against the Chiefs. All signs point to benching Carr in standard one-QB leagues.
Week 6 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It is unclear whether this game will be played in Oakland or Santa Clara, due to concerns about air quality with the wildfires. Not having home field advantage could be a logistical competitive disadvantage for this offense with Derek Carr likely to return from a back injury this week. Given these two risks, Carr has been bumped down outside the QB1 range in 12-team leagues for Week 6. The Chargers are also better than average in our aFPA vs. QB rankings.
Week 4 at Denver Broncos
Derek Carr goes to Denver for a tough matchup against the Broncos, a team he has only averaged 10.2 fantasy points against in his last three games. Carr also failed to reach six fantasy points on the road last week. Carr is not a starting option in one-QB leagues for Week 4.
Week 3 at Washington
The Raiders go cross-country, but it's on Sunday Night Football and the west to east trip issues should not be a factor due to the late kickoff. That's evidenced by Vegas assigning an implied team total second to only the Patriots this week for the silver and black. That makes Carr an upper-echelon QB1 in Week 3 against a Washington defense that gave up more than 18 points to Carson Wentz Week 1 before an easier match-up against Jared Goff Week 2. Start Carr with confidence.
